Ukraine Warns Russian Airspace 'No Longer Safe' for Civil Aviation

In a speech on Tuesday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russian airspace is 'becoming completely unsafe' due to the growing presence of Ukrainian drones. He emphasized that Ukraine is not threatening civil aviation, but 'there will be drones in the skies over Russia on a scale that must be taken into account,' while calling on airlines and insurance companies to take note. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed these remarks as 'a declaration of state terrorism.'

Ukraine Intensifies Deep Drone Strikes into Russian Territory

According to analysis, Ukraine has rapidly advanced its drone technology since the start of the war. The deep strike range of Ukrainian drones has increased from approximately 630 km in 2022 to 1,750 km this year, with attacks targeting locations as far as Omsk, roughly 2,500 km from the border.

Mark Brace, Head of Analysis at aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions, stated that Ukraine routinely launches over 500 drones per day, with some days exceeding 1,000. This leads to frequent and prolonged airport closures in Russia. Data from Osprey shows an average of 30 Russian airport closures per day since the conflict began.

When Ukrainian drones approach Russian cities, they trigger temporary restrictions on the airspace above, causing arriving and departing flights at airports to pause until the perceived threat passes, which can take several hours. Repeated drone alerts have forced Russian airports to implement temporary restrictions, raising increasing concerns for aircraft transiting Russian airspace.

Impact on the Global Aviation Industry

Russian airspace is considered 'the biggest structural distortion' in the global aviation industry. Before February 2022, flying over Russia was the shortest route between Europe and Northeast Asia, with over 360,000 flights per year crossing Siberia. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many European and American airlines have avoided this route.

According to aviation analyst Alex Macheras, Europe-Northeast Asia routes now incur an additional 2-4 hours of flight time, with the Helsinki-Tokyo route increasing from 9 to 13 hours. These costs are factored into ticket prices, operating expenses, crew schedules, and aircraft utilization across Europe's long-haul networks.

Several major airlines from China, Turkey, the UAE, and other Gulf states continue to use Russian airspace. US carriers complain that airlines still permitted to fly over Russia, such as Chinese ones, hold a competitive advantage with shorter routes and lower operating costs. If Russian airspace were closed to these carriers, that advantage would disappear.

Meanwhile, Turkish Airlines has built 'true strategic value' from its neutral access to Russian airspace, making Istanbul a natural connection point for traffic flows that Western carriers cannot directly exploit, Macheras noted. He also highlighted that Indian carriers, particularly Air India, rely on Russian airspace for their Delhi-London and Delhi-New York routes.

Pressure on Alternative Corridors

Conflicts in the Middle East have shaken the aviation industry over the past two years, exacerbating the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Mark Brace warned that 'alternative routes via the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East/Red Sea/Saudi Arabia/Gulf have become congested due to the lack of Russian airspace and the ongoing conflict in the Gulf region.'

Azerbaijan is a prime example. Before Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, it handled an average of 278 flights per day. By late 2025, this number had risen to an average of 695 flights daily. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February of this year, flights through Azerbaijan surged to an average of 810 per day in March, peaking at 1,062 flights in a single day on May 9.

According to Macheras, 'the Caucasus corridor is only about 100 miles wide at its narrowest point and has had to handle traffic diverted from both the closure of Russian airspace and Middle East disruptions. Any further restrictions on Russian airspace would push more volume into an already nearly saturated corridor, driving up fares and journey times across the board.'