Trump's Approval Rating Hits Historic Low as Republicans Face Midterm Risk
Al Jazeera Staff
A Reuters/Ipsos poll puts President Trump's approval at 31%, the lowest of his two terms, as voters cite rising living costs and opposition to the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 12 points ahead of the November 3 midterms, with analysts warning Republicans could lose their slim House and Senate majorities.
President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low, with only about 31% of respondents saying they are satisfied with how he is running the country, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday. That is the lowest figure of both of his presidential terms and continues a decline from 32% two weeks earlier.
The result comes as many American voters are frustrated by rising living costs and widespread opposition to the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Analysts say these factors could cost Trump's Republican Party in the midterm elections scheduled for November 3.
A 12-point gap favoring Democrats
Asked which party they would vote for if the election were held now, 47% of those polled chose the Democrats, while 35% chose the Republicans. The 12-point gap is the widest of the current election cycle, up from 7 points two weeks earlier.
The main driver of the Republicans' eroding support is a growing number of women voters shifting to the Democrats, accounting for roughly half of respondents. In addition, 40% of voters rate the Democrats as better at managing the economy, compared with 33% who chose the Republicans.
The survey polled 1,679 adults and is a general gauge of voter sentiment rather than a state-by-state analysis. The actual election outcome could therefore still hold surprises.
The historical pattern of midterm elections
Historically, incumbent presidents and their parties tend to suffer some backlash in midterm elections. According to the University of Virginia Center for Politics, voters who back the opposition party are usually more motivated to turn out in these elections.
In the 20 midterm elections since 1946, the incumbent president's approval rating fell between July and November — the months immediately before voting — 12 times. It improved only 7 times, and remained unchanged just once, under President George W. Bush in 2006.
Low approval, heavy losses
According to data from the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, the party in power lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections since 1946. A popular president, however, tends to soften the blow.
For example, when 75% of Americans approved of President George Bush in the 1990 midterms, Republicans lost only 8 seats across both chambers. By contrast, in 1994, when President Bill Clinton's approval stood at 46% during his first midterm, Democrats lost 52 congressional seats. In 1998, when Clinton's approval rose to 66%, Democrats lost only 5 seats.
Research aggregating University of California data shows that when a president's approval rating is below 50%, his party usually fares poorly in elections.
What does this mean for Trump?
Researchers say Trump's plunging approval, set against the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, is very likely to hurt Republicans. With the lowest rating in the history of U.S. presidents according to the University of California compilation, the party's chances of holding its fragile congressional majority are seen as very slim.
The remaining question is how much damage the party may absorb from Trump's policies. According to the Center for Politics, in the last five midterm elections the president's approval rating in post-election polls was usually slightly higher than in pre-election polls, because actual voters were added to the sample. That means the final outcome depends on how effectively each party persuades its supporters to turn out.
How many seats could Democrats win?
According to NBC News, which conducts its own polling and publishes state-by-state analysis, Senate Democrats could win in North Carolina and Maine, flipping them from Republicans. NBC also rates Alaska, Iowa and Texas as states that could go either way.
In the House, NBC forecasts 15 districts that could flip from Republican to Democratic. It lists 4 districts currently held by Republicans and 3 held by Democrats as toss-ups.
If Democrats win all of these close races without losing any seat they currently hold, they would gain a total of 22 House seats and 5 Senate seats.
All 435 House districts and 33 of the 100 Senate seats are up in this midterm election. Republicans currently hold a fragile 218-214 House majority and lead the Senate 53-47.
