How Hezbollah and Lebanon's Political Landscape Changed After October 7, 2023

Beirut, Lebanon – One day after the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, Hezbollah announced it would join the war, citing support for the Palestinians. According to analysts, that decision permanently shaped Lebanon's political landscape.

Experts say that before that point, Hezbollah had underestimated the extent of Israeli intelligence penetration. The consequences came later: the bloody explosion of communication devices in September 2024 and assassinations targeting most of the group's leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

"Hezbollah was pulled into a spiral that led to the decapitation of its leadership and the invasion of southern Lebanon," Nicholas Blanford, a senior non-resident expert at the Atlantic Council and author of a book on Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera. "That dealt a major blow to Hezbollah's popular standing, while also paving the way for Joseph Aoun's election as president and the emergence of a new government that is far tougher on the group."

According to analysts, while Hezbollah has not been defeated as some critics claim, it is no longer the dominant political and military force in Lebanon that it once was. The group's decisions have left it politically weakened.

"A chain of events"

Before October 7, 2023, Hezbollah – the force representing Lebanon's large Shia community – was the strongest political and military actor in the country. The influence of the Iran-backed group stretched across the region: it was a key ally of the al-Assad government in Syria, helping it regain territory from opposition groups, and it had ties to allies in Iraq and Yemen.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah wielded significant electoral influence, often using its power to make or break governments. The group also did not hesitate to mobilize supporters against opposition movements, as in 2019 when its forces took to the streets of Beirut to push back protesters demanding reform of the sectarian political system – a system in which Hezbollah had become a central player since Lebanon's 15-year civil war ended in 1990.

In the months before October 2023, Hezbollah's confidence was on clear display. Blanford cited the group's military parade in southern Lebanon and the erection of tents at Shebaa Farms – territory Lebanon considers occupied by Israel. At the time, Israel was reeling from protests, and Nasrallah gave speeches predicting Israel's imminent demise.

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah made the decision to join the war against Israel, an event known in Lebanon as the "support war."

"October 7 set off a chain of events that Lebanon's political system was not adequately prepared to handle," Jad Dilati, a political analyst from Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, told Al Jazeera. "Hezbollah opened the support front for Gaza on October 8 entirely unilaterally – without a cabinet decision, without government consensus, and without even considering the position of southern residents, who were hit hardest and are still suffering."

"Hezbollah opened the support front on October 8 with a genuine belief that it was acting from a position of strength," Dilati said. "Much of the south believed Hezbollah was in a strong position after years of building precision-missile capabilities, an intricate tunnel network, and missiles that we were told could hit every building in Tel Aviv."

Israel reinvades

Over the following 11 months, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire, with Israel striking Lebanon more than five times as often as Hezbollah attacked. Tens of thousands of people from southern Lebanon and northern Israel were forced to leave their homes.

In September 2024, Israel unilaterally intensified its attacks. On September 23 alone, nearly 500 people were killed. When Nasrallah was reported to have accepted a ceasefire – according to Lebanese officials cited by media – Israel ordered his assassination and the evacuation of areas in Beirut's southern suburbs.

"When Nasrallah was ready for a ceasefire, Israel was on the offensive and had no intention of returning to the previous status quo," Blanford said.

Israel invaded southern Lebanon in October 2024 and maintained a presence on Lebanese territory for more than two months after a ceasefire was agreed in November of that year. Despite the ceasefire, Israel continued to destroy homes and infrastructure in southern Lebanon and refused to withdraw from five positions on Lebanese territory. In neighboring Syria, the fall of the al-Assad government in December 2024 also dealt a blow to the group by disrupting overland routes for receiving weapons and funding from Iran.

Over the following 14 months, Israel violated the ceasefire more than 10,000 times. By March 2026, Israel had re-escalated the war in Lebanon. The attacks came after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel for the first time in more than a year, in response to a wave of ceasefire violations and the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – whom Hezbollah regards as its religious and political leader.

Israel then invaded Lebanon again and expanded its attacks across the country. According to statistics, Israel has killed more than 9,000 people in Lebanon since 2024 and displaced more than 1.2 million, emptying many areas.

Hezbollah's crisis of legitimacy

Israel now occupies large swaths of Lebanese territory, in some places as deep as 10 km from the border. Many villages that were once densely populated and farmed are now just rubble, uninhabited. Hundreds of thousands of people remain in exile.

This has hit Lebanon hard. The World Bank says the country's economy contracted by more than 6 percent in 2026. After the 2024 conflict, the World Bank estimated Lebanon needed about $11 billion for recovery and reconstruction; the figure is likely much higher now.

After previous wars with Israel, such as in 2006, Hezbollah was able to support much of its community and its supporters. Providing social welfare was a key factor in maintaining support and trust among its voter base.

However, since 2024, the Lebanese state, along with much of the international community, has been working to expand government services. The state has also publicly stated it is working to disarm Hezbollah, despite the group's opposition, as part of a framework agreement with Israel.

"Hezbollah is in an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy," Dilati said. "I don't think there is a rift in the community or a complete political realignment, but a large part of the community that supported the group for decades is saying that Iran abandoned them, that the war was fought on their land for someone else's interests, and that they do not want war anymore."

Despite growing discontent with the group, analysts say Hezbollah remains the most popular representative force within Lebanon's Shia Muslim community.

"Hezbollah still fundamentally meets their needs, and there is currently no political alternative for the Shia community," Blanford said. "What binds them to Hezbollah is that hundreds of thousands of Shia have been driven from their homes and are living in non-Shia areas where they do not feel welcome. This can create a sense of vulnerability, leading them to turn to Hezbollah as a community protector, rightly or wrongly."

The group still retains fighting capability; despite some critics calling it a spent force, analysts and foreign diplomats say its weakness is exaggerated. Hezbollah's future depends largely on regional developments, especially the US-Israeli war with Iran. However, according to analysts, the current status quo – in which the state negotiates with Israel and seeks to expand its influence over Lebanese territory, while Hezbollah adapts to diminished domestic influence – could work against the group.

"The important thing is that this occupation looks set to last, and there may be a scenario in which people who lost not only their homes but also their villages, orchards, banana plantations, tobacco fields… think that life used to be good and begin to blame Hezbollah," Blanford said.