Trump and Xi meet in Beijing: China’s role on Iran could trade for US concessions

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are meeting in Beijing as the war in Iran emerges as a new item on the list of shared concerns and potential disagreements between the two nations. US officials argue China should play a larger role in pushing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts say Beijing will demand concessions from Washington, possibly on Taiwan, if it helps resolve the crisis.

However, the Iran issue may not top the agenda at the Trump-Xi summit. Christopher Heurlin, associate professor of government and Asian studies at Bowdoin College, said: “Iran is not really a focus of either side in this summit.” He noted that while the meeting was delayed earlier this year due to the war, Taiwan remains China’s top priority, while Trump may push Beijing to buy more US soybeans.

China is a major oil importer from Iran and the Middle East, so its economy could feel pressure from disruptions caused by Iran’s blockade of Hormuz and the US naval blockade. Still, Heurlin said Beijing has been reluctant to engage in the crisis.

Trump in a weak position

While Beijing has stockpiled oil to cope with global energy shortages, these reserves are limited, so China has an interest in reopening the strait. At the same time, if Washington – Beijing’s main strategic rival – is weakened globally by the Iran conflict, that benefits China. The Economist once ran a cover showing Xi looking at Trump with Napoleon’s quote: “Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.”

Inderjeet Parmar, professor of international relations at City St George’s, University of London, said Trump arrives in China in a weak position due to the constraints of the Iran war. “Trump needs China’s help to open the Strait of Hormuz. China also needs the strait opened for oil and energy from Iran. At the same time, they can use this as leverage on Taiwan,” Parmar said.

Before leaving for China, Trump said he did not need Xi’s help on Iran, claiming the conflict is “totally under control.” However, soaring US gasoline prices, rising inflation, diplomatic deadlock, and falling approval ratings show the war is affecting the Republican president’s domestic and international standing. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week urged China to intervene: “Let them move forward with diplomacy and force Iran to open the strait,” Bessent said, accusing Beijing of “financing the biggest state sponsor of terrorism” by buying Iranian oil.

China’s plan

William Yang, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said both China and the US want Hormuz opened, but “their preferred approaches to achieving this goal do not align.” While China calls for restraint from all sides, Trump consistently threatens Iran with major military attacks. Iran refuses direct talks with the US until Washington lifts its naval blockade. A US military initiative to forcibly reopen Hormuz earlier this month ended within 48 hours without significantly increasing traffic through the strait.

In April, Xi proposed a “four-point plan to protect and promote peace and stability in the Middle East,” including a commitment to peaceful coexistence, respect for national sovereignty, adherence to international law, and support for “a balanced approach to development and security.” The plan reflects a preference for multilateralism and diplomacy, in contrast to Trump’s reliance on military force. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. China’s Foreign Ministry stated: “China believes a comprehensive ceasefire is most urgent, resumption of hostilities is even more unacceptable, and adherence to negotiations is especially important.”

US-China relations

China buys oil from Iran despite US sanctions, and Washington has expressed concern over Beijing selling products that Tehran could use for military purposes. However, before the war, the Iran issue was secondary in US-China competition. Over the past two decades, Washington has viewed Beijing as its top global rival as China’s economy and regional and global influence grew. The 2017 National Security Strategy under Trump called China a “strategic competitor.” Former President Joe Biden continued this, declaring Beijing a “pacing challenge” for Washington. The US has pushed to strengthen alliances in the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s rise.

Bilateral relations have deteriorated in recent years over trade, sanctions, Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Taiwan issue. Tensions were particularly strained after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan and the 2023 “spy balloon” incident. However, since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump and his administration have placed less emphasis on great-power competition. The latest National Security Strategy says the US wants to shift focus to the Western Hemisphere.

Trade and tariffs remain major issues. Iran and Taiwan could further increase tensions.

What might China want?

Analysts say that if Xi helps Trump reopen Hormuz, this support will not come for free. Beijing’s top priority is Taiwan. The US maintains a nominal “one China” policy but has armed and established trade relations with Taiwan. Trump has not approved a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that Congress passed. Professor Parmar said China could demand opposition to Taiwan independence in exchange for pressure on Iran to open Hormuz. Heurlin also said China primarily wants to discuss Taiwan: “They see the Trump administration as potentially more persuadable on the Taiwan stance, and specifically, it seems China will try to convince Trump not to proceed with the arms deal that is on his desk.”

Brian Osgood contributed to this report.