Russia's losses in Ukraine nearly triple in one year
John T Psaropoulos
Ukraine has reclaimed 400 square kilometers this quarter, and Russian casualties have surged to 145,000 this year, according to Ukrainian and U.S. reports. Russia's territorial gains have slowed dramatically, and economic strain is evident as Moscow sells gold reserves at a record pace.
Evidence of Russia's decline in the war in Ukraine—both militarily and economically—has mounted in the past week. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) confirmed that Russia has lost some of the territory it previously occupied in Ukraine.
A report submitted to the U.S. Congress on May 18 stated: “Ukraine has regained roughly 400 square kilometers in and around the Dnipropetrovsk region—more than at any time since late 2022—this quarter.”
Although Russia still holds a territorial advantage in 2026, the pace of its advance is slowing, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The ISW shows that from January 1 to May 26, 2026, Russia gained only 104 square kilometers, compared to 1,619 square kilometers in the same period last year. Russian forces infiltrated and controlled an additional 628 square kilometers without establishing full control.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russian casualties this year have risen to 145,000, including 86,000 killed and 59,000 severely wounded. Ukraine says its drone footage confirms each case. Al Jazeera could not independently verify these figures.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said this translates to 179 Russian soldiers killed or wounded per square kilometer of advance, compared to 67 last year. This rate exceeds Russia's capacity to replace troops through recruitment.
The war is also straining Russia's finances. After exceeding its full-year 2026 budget deficit cap in April and depleting foreign exchange reserves, Russia has sold gold reserves at an unprecedented pace. According to the Russian Central Bank, the country sold 27.9 tons of gold reserves this year, worth over $4 billion, bringing reserves to their lowest since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
On aerial tactics, the DIA attributed Ukraine's recapture of 400 square kilometers to Russia losing access to Starlink satellite services used for targeting and counter-battery fire. Ukraine credits its success to a strategy of intercepting Russian logistics using medium-range drones and artillery. Fedorov said Ukraine is intensifying this strategy through a program called “Logistical Lockdown.”
On May 21, Russia-installed Kherson governor Vladimir Saldo restricted movement on the M-14 highway connecting Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol due to a high number of vehicle attacks. On May 28, Sweden announced it would donate 16 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, and Ukraine will purchase 20 more through the EU with a $2.9 billion loan package.
Ukraine continues long-range strikes on Russia's oil economy. On May 23, Ukraine attacked an oil depot and export terminal at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, causing a fire and hitting a Russian tanker. The next day, Ukraine struck the Tamanneftegaz terminal, also on the Black Sea. Additionally, industrial and military sites were hit, including the Metafrax chemical plant in Perm (1,700 km from the border) and the Taganrog airbase in Rostov, damaging an aircraft repair facility.
On the Russian side, Moscow continued large-scale airstrikes on Kyiv. On May 24, Russia launched 600 long-range drones and 90 missiles targeting Kyiv and its surroundings, including 36 ballistic missiles. Ukraine shot down 91% of the drones and 81% of the cruise missiles, while 19 missiles may have missed their targets. Those that hit damaged the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the Cabinet building, two museums, and a food market. At least 87 people were wounded and two killed.
Russia described this as retaliation for an attack on a Russian-controlled college in Luhansk two days earlier. President Vladimir Putin called it “a terrorist attack on the dormitory of the Starobilsk Pedagogical College,” killing 6 students and wounding 39. Ukraine's General Staff said it was a strike on an advanced drone technology center run by Russia's Rubikon drone force.
On May 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. counterpart Marco Rubio that Russia would begin striking “military facilities” in Kyiv in retaliation for the Starobilsk incident. Moscow also warned foreign nationals, including diplomats, to leave Kyiv and hinted that “decision-making centers and command headquarters” would be targeted.
