Tigray edges back to daily life as fears of wider conflict grow

Mekelle (Ethiopia) — Shops in Mekelle are reopening and the banking system is gradually restoring services, yet residents of the city remain anxious about what lies ahead. Ethiopian federal forces and allied armed groups retook the Tigray regional capital on October 4, as renewed fighting raised fears that the region's already fragile recovery could once again be thrown off course.

Tigray, in northern Ethiopia, is still recovering from the 2020–2022 war between federal forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the political movement that dominates the region. For residents, the return of fighting brings added uncertainty over jobs, education, security and the future.

Life returns, hardship persists

Businesses and financial services are gradually reopening in Mekelle, but many households are still struggling to cover basic needs. Delayed salaries leave civil servants hard-pressed to pay for food, rent and schooling, while years of conflict have eroded families' savings.

"Everything may be reopening, but that doesn't mean our difficulties are over. There are expenses every day, and without a salary it's hard to see how we'll manage," said Gebregziabher, a civil servant in Mekelle.

The financial crisis has hit the entire public sector. In March, Tigray's interim administration said it could no longer pay monthly salaries to some 137,000 civil servants because budget transfers from the federal government had not arrived as expected. By April, the regional finance bureau reported a shortfall of 8.5 billion birr (about USD 52,000), affecting salary payments and development projects.

For many residents, the reopening of businesses amounts to only a partial recovery. With incomes unstable and security uncertain, everyday expenses remain a burden.

Students fear losing more time

For students in Tigray, renewed fighting revives fears of another disruption to their education. Many already lost valuable study time in the previous war and worry about falling further behind.

In Adigrat, Shewit, a 10th-grade student, said uncertainty over the school schedule and security left her worried about the future.

"I've already lost so much time because of the war. I'm afraid that if my studies are interrupted again, I'll lose another year and fall even further behind," she said.

Some university students have left Tigray for Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, seeking places at other public universities. The Ministry of Education announced temporary placements at universities elsewhere in the country for students enrolled at institutions in Tigray. According to program information from the ministry, more than 5,000 students had applied as of September 17–18.

Abel, a third-year student at Axum University, traveled to Addis Ababa to seek a transfer.

"I didn't want to leave, but I can't keep putting my education on hold. I came to Addis to see whether I can transfer to another university and continue studying. I just want to finish what I started," Abel said.

For students who have already lost years to the conflict, the uncertainty is not only about missed classes. It also threatens to delay graduation and make an already difficult path to employment even harder.

Border communities fear conflict spreading

Near the Eritrean border, military movements and conflicting reports about troop deployments have heightened fears that fighting could spill beyond Tigray.

On October 8, the Associated Press quoted a commander allied with the Ethiopian government as saying Eritrean troops had entered Adigrat earlier in the week and Idaga Hamus the following day. The AP said it could not independently verify the reports. The conflict-monitoring group ACLED also recorded Eritrean troops crossing the border at Zalambessa.

On October 13, Reuters reported that Ethiopian government forces had entered Zalambessa, citing people in contact with residents and other sources. The report said it was unclear whether Eritrean troops or Tigrayan opposition fighters were still present in the town. The conflicting accounts make it difficult to determine who controls which towns as the battlefield shifts.

The developments come amid deteriorating relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara. On October 8, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea of sending troops as far as 60 km into Ethiopian territory in some areas of Tigray and called on the UN Security Council to respond.

Eritrea rejected the accusation of violating Ethiopian territory. Its government said Ethiopia's claims amounted to a declaration of war and urged the Security Council to act against Ethiopia. The contradictory statements have raised fears that renewed fighting in Tigray could lead to a direct confrontation between the two neighbors.

Ethiopia and Eritrea were once on the same side in the 2020–2022 Tigray war, when Eritrean forces backed the federal government against the TPLF. The worsening relationship between the two countries has added a regional dimension to the new conflict.

In Zalambessa, residents are watching developments with concern. One resident, who asked not to be named, said the uncertainty made it hard to know what the coming weeks would bring.

An uncertain road ahead

On October 16, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a six-month transitional administration for Tigray, tasked with restoring public services, helping displaced people return and preparing the region for elections. The announcement came after federal forces took over Mekelle and several other major towns.

The federal government says the interim administration will help restore stability and lay the groundwork for an elected regional leadership. The TPLF opposes the federal advance, and it remains unclear how effectively the new administration will function across the region.

For residents, the immediate concerns are whether salaries will be paid, whether schools and health facilities will operate, and whether displaced families can return safely.

In Zalambessa, Gebrehiwot said residents know from experience what another conflict could bring.

"People are worried because we know what war means for this region. We have suffered enough, and no one wants to see things go back to that," he said.