US-Iran Deal at Risk as Experts Urge Trump to Rein In Netanyahu

Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, Israeli strikes on Lebanon have emerged as the biggest fissure threatening a comprehensive ceasefire. Analysts say President Donald Trump must use his influence to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, or risk the peace process collapsing.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran calls for a “permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” However, Israel continues air strikes and incursions, controlling nearly 20% of Lebanese territory, actions that have frustrated the Trump administration.

In a social media post Thursday, President Trump wrote: “America is committed to PEACE, and we encourage everyone in the Middle East to remain committed so talks can go well. We expect a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel.”

Iran has repeatedly stated it will not finalize a ceasefire while Lebanon is under attack. On Friday, technical talks between the US and Iran were postponed after Israeli attacks on Lebanon killed dozens. US officials say a new ceasefire agreement had been reached, but Israel continued its assaults.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said he had received assurances from President Masoud Pezeshkian about protecting the interests of “the Iranian nation and the resistance front” — a network of regional allies including Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Tehran is not bluffing about the ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. “Lebanon has always been the biggest weak point of this deal because it really matters to the Iranians,” Parsi said.

Meanwhile, Israeli allies in the US, such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), immediately criticized the Lebanon terms, arguing Israel needs military freedom to address “threats.” Conversely, Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), said Lebanon is the “biggest test” for the ceasefire. “I would not be surprised if the broader talks collapse and Israel and Iran return to war,” Costello said.

Israel began its military campaign in Lebanon in February, after the US and Israel struck Iran. The conflict quickly escalated into a regional war. Hezbollah entered the fight in March to retaliate for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The first US-Iran ceasefire was reached on April 8, mediated by Pakistan, and included Lebanon. But Israel immediately declared it would not abide by the agreement in Lebanon.

Israel has destroyed entire towns in Lebanon, killed thousands, and displaced over a million people. Iran has fired missiles at Israel when Beirut was bombarded and warned Israel it “will face a strong response” if it continues bombing Lebanon.

This time, unlike the April ceasefire, the new MoU was publicly signed by President Trump and President Pezeshkian, with a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon explicitly stated. Vice President JD Vance also stressed that Israel must respect the “peace process” with Iran. He criticized the large explosions in civilian areas of Beirut, where many innocents died, as “unacceptable.”

Analysts say beyond words, the US must use real leverage—including military and diplomatic support for Israel—to restrain Mr. Netanyahu. Mr. Parsi said Vice President Vance’s statement reflects genuine tension between the US and Israel, not just routine criticism. “The volume and intensity of the US public messaging right now is unprecedented,” he said.

Matthew Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy, also said President Trump seems increasingly aware that Prime Minister Netanyahu could wreck the ceasefire with his Lebanon campaign. “The question remains: do we finally have a US president willing to apply real pressure on Netanyahu when he misbehaves?” Duss asked.