New Syria-Russia Deal: Pragmatic Cooperation After Assad's Fall

Syria and Russia have spent 18 months negotiating the future of Moscow's military presence after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024. On August 9, the post-Assad government in Damascus announced a memorandum of understanding regarding the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.

Under the agreement, Syria will take control of civilian facilities at Hmeimim air base and the commercial area of Tartus port. The military sections will be converted into joint Russia-Syria training and education centers, expected to be completed within three months. Moscow has not yet issued an official comment on the deal.

This marks a significant shift from the bases' previous role in serving the al-Assad regime during the nearly 14-year civil war, which killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians and displaced millions. However, analysts say the deal reflects a pragmatic approach: Damascus regains better control over key facilities, while Russia retains a foothold and avoids being completely pushed out of a country where Moscow has invested for decades.

Expert Alexey Muraviev from Edith Cowan University (Australia) noted: "The agreement between Russia and the Syrian government shows that both countries need each other." Damascus appears "unwilling to end its long-standing relationship with Russia."

Russia Maintains Military Foothold in Syria

Moscow was a key ally of Assad, intervening militarily in 2015 to keep his government in power. Hmeimim served as the hub for Russia's airstrike campaign, while Tartus was Moscow's main naval outpost in the Mediterranean. However, Russia did not intervene when opposition forces led by Ahmed al-Sharaa advanced on Damascus and toppled the regime in late 2024. Russian troops then gradually withdrew, retaining only the two bases.

Syria's Foreign Ministry views the new deal as a "restructuring of Russia's presence along the Syrian coast," emphasizing it as "the most significant development since negotiations began about a year and a half ago, paving the way for a new phase in Syria-Russia relations."

"No Permanent Enemies, Only Permanent Interests"

Analyst Ruslan Trad of the Atlantic Council noted that al-Sharaa's government once fought against Russian-backed forces but, upon taking power, immediately began negotiating to keep Moscow in rather than expel it. "This confirms the pragmatic maxim in politics: no permanent enemies, only permanent interests."

Analysts suggest Damascus may have calculated that punishing Russia for its wartime role would be more harmful than beneficial. Moscow holds asylum for former President Assad, controls Syria's debts and reconstruction contracts, provides subsidized oil and grain, and is a permanent UN Security Council member with veto power.

Aron Lund, an expert at Century International, pointed out that much of Syria's military and civilian technology originates from Russia and the former Soviet Union. "A complete severance of this cooperation would be very difficult for Syria." He described it as "transactional pragmatism on both sides." Talks between the two sides began just weeks after Assad's overthrow, with even preliminary agreements reached before the old regime's collapse during the offensive.

Sovereignty Balance: Syria No Longer Moscow's "Client"

President al-Sharaa has visited Moscow twice to meet President Putin since taking office, publicly acknowledging Russia's role in "stabilizing the situation not only in Syria but also in the region." Putin has also expressed support for Syria's territorial integrity.

For Russia, Moscow needs to maintain its "only military platform in the Mediterranean to project power into Africa and the region," potentially in exchange for debt relief, economic cooperation, and UN support for Syria. According to Trad, both sides "still need each other, but on renegotiated terms reflecting Syria's new status as a sovereign gatekeeper rather than Moscow's client."

The Multilateral Puzzle

Since Assad's fall, Western and regional actors have sought to use the political transition to limit Russian influence. Expert Muraviev believes the US and possibly Israel have pushed Damascus to end Moscow's presence, but the deal shows Syria's government "held its ground, resisting pressure" due to clear benefits from maintaining ties with Russia.

The year-and-a-half-long negotiations also indicate "both sides were interested in keeping talks from collapsing." However, Muraviev stressed that keeping Russia does not mean Syria is closing doors to other powers. "The new government is ready to develop strategic relations with the US, Turkey, even Israel, but still wants a multi-faceted network... Russia's presence in the equation may be a bargaining chip in the power game with major powers."

Aron Lund noted the talks were highly discreet, possibly because both sides feared that too much discussion of the bases could trigger US and European demands for closure. He posed an open question: "Will this deal constrain Russia more, or conversely, formalize and reactivate Russia's military presence in Syria?"