Trump's Diesel Deal Opens New Rift With Europe Over Ukraine

Russia says it can supply global markets with even more diesel than the volume agreed with US President Donald Trump. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the Vesti news program on Monday that "by the end of this year, we can reach a supply volume of 3.5 million tonnes per month to the global market, as before the crisis."

On Friday, President Vladimir Putin and Trump spoke by phone about a deal expected to put 300,000 tonnes of diesel onto the global market in October, half a million tonnes in November and one million tonnes in December. Trump wrote on social media: "Diesel prices for the American people and the world will GO DOWN, WITH RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!"

Experts, however, are sceptical, and the move has opened a rift between the United States and Europe over the war in Ukraine. Kostis Stambolis, executive director of the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe (IENE), described the US move as "purely political" and aimed at putting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a difficult position. According to him, Trump wants to signal that the US "has no problem with Russia", unlike Europe. He added: "Russia produces 5.8 million tonnes of diesel per month. About two million tonnes is potentially available for export."

Europe has responded to the diesel deal by backing Ukraine, with funding for its war effort set to be the "centrepiece" at this week's European Council summit, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday. On Monday, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen called on Europeans to ban all tourist visas for Russians.

Stambolis argues that Trump is exploiting Europe's weakness to shift the bloc's position on Ukraine. He explained that about 30 European refineries have closed over the past 15 years for environmental reasons, due to having to pay for greenhouse gas emissions under the European Emissions Trading System, "so now Europe cannot supply itself with enough products". According to him, Trump is showing Europeans that "he doesn't want to work with Europe and is leaving them to their fate... This is widening the rift between the US and the EU".

Ukraine says it has destroyed about half of Russia's refining capacity, forcing Moscow to halt exports of lucrative oil products that help fund the war. Ukraine has also bombed Russian crude tankers bound for the global market. Zelenskyy says the strategy has been effective, and Trump's deal — which would suspend sanctions on Russian oil products until April 2027 — has undermined it. Zelenskyy said on Saturday: "Gifts to Putin will not lead to peace. Any easing of sanctions on Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is a clear sign of weakness."

Although Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday, prompting Ukraine to pause attacks on refineries, Russian air strikes continued to pound Kyiv's power grid and killed 12 people in Dnipropetrovsk. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said of Zelenskyy: "I don't think he has been given a respite."

Europe supports Ukraine's economic strategy against Russia's war machine, but Trump blames that strategy for high petrol prices at US pumps, as he heads into congressional midterm elections in early November. Trump told reporters at the White House after Zelenskyy's response: "[Zelenskyy] wants to cause problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel because Russia supplies a large share of the world's diesel. I think it's time Ukraine needs a new president."

Politics rather than economics

Trump has pursued what appears to be a self-contradictory policy towards Russia. He cut US military aid to Ukraine when he took office in January 2025, but agreed to sell weapons to Europe to help Ukraine. He had a public row with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February 2025, saying "You have no cards", yet at this year's NATO summit he said Zelenskyy had "done very well" and was "very effective". Last month, Trump signed the Lindsey Graham Act, which allows him to sanction countries buying Russian oil. Eleven days later, he reversed the policy.

Victoria Vdovychenko, an expert on European security at the University of Cambridge's Centre for Geopolitics, said: "The moment the pendulum swings to one side, Trump tries to balance it with a completely different and opposing instrument. In this way, he finds himself controlling the narrative, and also the negotiations in whatever form. So this pendulum will continue to dominate."

How expensive is diesel in the US?

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), average US diesel and petrol prices spiked briefly but ultimately changed little because of the Ukraine war, although they rose sharply due to the US-Israel war with Iran. US diesel prices stood at $4.10 a gallon on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, February 24, 2022. That figure fell to $3.81 on the eve of Trump's Gulf war, February 28, 2026. Since then, prices have risen 78 percent to $6.19 in early October.

The story is similar for regular US unleaded petrol, at $3.48 a gallon before Russia's invasion. Prices stood at $2.79 before Trump's Gulf war but have since risen by half, to $4.15 a gallon. The US government has little room to cut taxes, which account for only 11 or 12 percent of the retail price, so it can only adjust prices through supply.

Will the diesel deal lower prices?

Stambolis told Al Jazeera: "If the market knows there will be more diesel in the coming weeks, it will factor this into today's price and discount it right now." However, he said, far more important than the Trump-Putin deal in lowering oil prices is the G7's October 2 announcement of the release of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves. The remaining 80 million barrels from an earlier release of 400 million tonnes in March will also be unloaded. Stambolis said: "This release will start happening in the next two weeks. The world is short 5 million barrels of crude a day compared with before the Gulf war. That is a very significant ratio out of 100 million. Every price moves on this margin."