A new poll by Datafolha has confirmed that this year's race for Brazil's presidency is extremely tight. Both leading candidates: incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (80, left-wing) and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro each received 45% support in the poll released Saturday (May 13).
The survey of 2,004 respondents found that 9% said they would cast blank or invalid votes, while 1% remain undecided.
The poll was conducted over two days, May 12 and 13, before the latest scandal involving Bolsonaro's campaign drew media attention.
Controversy over film deal
On May 13, The Intercept Brasil published a report revealing WhatsApp messages between Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro, a banker under arrest on fraud allegations. According to the report, Bolsonaro approached Vorcaro to sponsor a film about the life of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, titled Dark Horse.
The Bolsonaro family claims the former president (serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup and overturning the 2022 election results) is the victim of political persecution. They have invited American actor Jim Caviezel to play the former president.
According to the report, Flavio Bolsonaro and his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro secured sponsorship from Vorcaro, who ultimately committed 24 million USD (134 million Brazilian reais) to the film project.
In a statement, Flavio Bolsonaro acknowledged seeking sponsorship but denied any connection to Vorcaro's alleged fraud. “We must separate the innocent from the criminal. In our case, it is just a son seeking private funding for a private film about his father's life,” the statement read.
However, left-wing lawmakers have called for an investigation into the matter.
Other campaign troubles
The film contract scandal is among several controversies rocking Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign in recent months. In December last year, the Rio de Janeiro senator declared his candidacy with the backing of his imprisoned father.
Shortly afterward, he faced criticism over comments suggesting he might withdraw from the race in exchange for his father's freedom. Bolsonaro later clarified that his candidacy was “irreversible.”
In April, Brazil's Supreme Court authorized federal police to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro had made defamatory remarks against President Lula.
A late 2025 poll showed Lula leading by a wide margin, but Bolsonaro has steadily closed the gap. With the general election approaching in October, the two main candidates are in a tight race.
