Syria chooses diplomacy with Israel, but is the path sustainable?

Since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's government in December 2024, Syria has opted for diplomacy with Israel rather than military confrontation. Officials have committed to a policy of avoiding conflict with neighboring countries as the nation struggles to rebuild after more than a decade of war.

However, Israel continues actions that destabilize the peace process, including repeated strikes on Syrian territory. Analysts say that despite these provocations, Damascus still views diplomacy as its only option.

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in security studies at King's College London, said the Syrian government is "extremely pragmatic" in its willingness to sit at the negotiating table and cooperate with various parties to advance national interests.

Syria's concerns

Under al-Assad, Syria was part of the Iran-led "axis of resistance," alongside other Tehran allies. Syrian territory was used to transport weapons and financial aid from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Syrian military has not fought Israel since the 1974 disengagement agreement signed under former President Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father.

When rebels led by current President Ahmed al-Sharaa captured Damascus and toppled al-Assad's government, Israel immediately struck Syrian military infrastructure nationwide. Israeli soldiers also pushed deeper into southern Syria, beyond the occupied Golan Heights. Nearly two years later, Israeli forces continue to set up checkpoints, harass, and detain Syrians in these areas.

Since then, Syrian officials, including President al-Sharaa, have stated they have no intention of attacking Israel and seek peace with all neighbors. Nevertheless, Israel has repeatedly threatened the Syrian government, warning against deploying troops in the south, and bombed Syria's Defense Ministry in Damascus in July 2025.

"The government must walk a tightrope as always. It seems the Syrian people are tired of war, tired of conflict; they want stability, development, and nation-building," Pinfold remarked.

Damascus has sought regional and international help to counter aggression. The new Syrian government has gained trust from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, while maintaining close ties with Turkey and several Gulf states. Israel's continued violations have not deterred Syria's diplomatic efforts.

Analysts believe the Syrian government hopes to leverage its pragmatism to create stability, making Israel no longer the "main spoiler" in the post-al-Assad era. However, under the Netanyahu government, Israel appears inclined to use force to resolve issues.

Despite affirming commitment to peace and diplomacy, Damascus has also shown it does not yet view Israel as a reliable neighbor. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani once said: "We currently do not trust Israel." Syria has also filed multiple complaints with the United Nations over Israel's actions.

Souhayb Jawhar, a Lebanese analyst at the Badil Research Center in Beirut, said Damascus does not see Israel as a trustworthy political partner but views negotiations with Israel as a security necessity. He outlined three immediate demands for Syria: Israel must stop airstrikes on Syrian territory, cease incursions and detentions of Syrian citizens, and withdraw troops from areas captured after al-Assad's fall.

Bente Scheller, head of the Middle East and North Africa division at the Heinrich-Boll-Stiftung Foundation, said after years of war, Syrians are exhausted and certainly do not want a new war. However, Israel's ability to act with impunity in Syria is creating resentment and weakening support for normalization or even peace.

Analysts say Damascus believes the alternative to diplomacy with Israel, even amid attacks, could be too costly for a rebuilding nation. "Diplomacy is the least costly option. Syria's leadership does not want to open a military front with Israel while rebuilding its army, state, and economy. They also rely on the U.S. to pressure Israel," Jawhar said.

Israel's concerns

Foreign Minister al-Shaibani recently met Roman Gofman, head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, in U.S.-mediated talks in Amman, Jordan. Syria's state news agency SANA said the talks "focused on establishing practical mechanisms to prevent Israeli attacks, detentions, and targeted operations" as well as reviving negotiations for a long-term security agreement between the two sides.

The talks followed an Israeli strike on an airbase in Idlib, northwestern Syria. Analysts say the attack may have been a message to Syria about its efforts to rebuild its air force, as well as to Turkey, which has wide influence in northern Syria.

Still, analysts say Syrians generally support the government's efforts to avoid conflict and pressure Israel through regional and international allies. Pinfold said: "It seems people want Israel to disappear, to stop being a threat and a spoiler. That doesn't mean they are ready to give up claims to the Golan Heights."

The Golan Heights holds special significance for Syria. The area has been occupied by Israel since 1967, and Israeli forces advanced deeper after al-Assad's fall. Israel has repeatedly stated it has no intention of relinquishing the Golan, which provides Israel a direct flight path to strike Iran.

With elections set for October in Israel, many analysts think the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may seek to escalate tensions on multiple fronts, including Syria, rather than reduce them. Pinfold explained: "There is an understanding that reaching a deal with Syria could be worse for Israel's national interests. And if no agreement is reached, Israel cannot be accused of breaking anything, while gaining more operational freedom."

Turkey – the next 'bogeyman'?

After the airbase attack, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack proposed establishing a conflict-prevention mechanism involving Turkey, Syria, and Israel. This mechanism follows similar U.S.-led efforts in Lebanon and between Israel and Syria in Amman. However, analysts doubt its effectiveness without real U.S. pressure on Israel.

"The recent bombings of Abu al-Duhur airbase, despite tense talks days earlier, show the Israeli government now prioritizes military measures over political processes and does not hesitate to act against Mr. Trump's plans," Scheller said.

Despite ceasefire declarations or de-escalation efforts, Israel continues attacks on people, including civilians, in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. Analysts believe Israel has a new target in its sights. Pinfold noted: "The new bogeyman on the horizon is Turkey. Netanyahu has talked about this, and opposition leaders, especially Naftali Bennett, also argue Israel needs to redirect its foreign and security policy to deal with Turkey."

In this context, analysts say the likelihood of a real peace agreement in the near term is very low. Pinfold concluded: "The current problem is there is no receptive partner (in Israel). The Syrian government seems determined to use diplomacy to convince Israel it is not a threat and can negotiate, instead of letting Israel unilaterally impose its will by force. But right now, there simply is no receptive audience for that."