Somalia Announces 2027 Election Schedule Amid Mounting Controversy

Somalia's Independent National Electoral and Boundaries Commission (INEBC) has announced plans to hold parliamentary and presidential elections next year. The announcement, made on state television on Thursday, set out a specific timetable: elections for members of both chambers of parliament are expected on April 15, 2027, followed by a presidential vote on May 15 of the same year.

In its statement, the electoral body said the presidential election would be held under the provision that "the presidential term is five years, beginning on the date the president is sworn in."

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's second term, which began in 2022, ended earlier this year. However, his government declared a "transitional period" through a constitutional amendment in May, despite an agreement with the opposition to hold elections. Opposition parties boycotted the constitutional amendment vote and have opposed the changes since.

Mohamud is pushing for party-based elections to replace the system established by clan elders. Critics, however, view the effort as a power grab.

Former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo called the election decision a "dangerous threat to the state and the future of Somalia" in a post on X, urging agreement among all factions before any decision on elections is made.

Another former president, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who once led the opposition, warned that a "controversial electoral process could lead to parallel elections" and even "civil conflict," according to AFP.

The government, meanwhile, welcomed the announcement of the election dates as a "critical phase... toward strengthening the country's democratic system" and called on all parties to take part in the process peacefully and in "good faith."

"There is no political agreement to hold those elections," analyst Samira Gaid told AFP. She said all the processes the government is launching are leading to further fragmentation, and argued that the government essentially consists only of Mogadishu and "two or three allied member states." According to Gaid, the elections will lead to "more conflict and confrontation in the remaining federal member states."

In the capital, Mogadishu, some residents also expressed skepticism, calling the announcement "unilateral." "Announcing an election schedule through a process pushed by one side and rejected by the opposition is effectively a declaration of a new conflict," Omar Said, a resident of the capital, told AFP.

Security challenges

Speaking to Al Jazeera earlier this month, President Mohamud said the country still faces significant security challenges, although al-Shabab is no longer present in major cities and the group's ability to control Somalia is very low.

Al-Shabab is a Somali armed group that emerged from the Islamic Courts Union in the mid-2000s and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2012. It has fought Somalia's federal government for years, controlling territory in parts of southern and central Somalia and carrying out deadly attacks, including in Mogadishu and neighboring Kenya.

Mohamud said the United States remains Somalia's strongest partner in the fight against "terrorism." He also addressed relations with Ethiopia, describing them as good and stressing that Mogadishu does not oppose landlocked Addis Ababa gaining sea access through a joint agreement using Somali ports for economic benefit.

In January 2024, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on sea access, a move Somalia condemned as a violation of its sovereignty. Somalia and Ethiopia later agreed to reduce tensions.