Six Months of U.S.-Iran War: Who Gains, Who Loses?

It has been exactly six months since February 28, when the United States and Israel launched missile strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many senior Iranian officials in Tehran, along with dozens of children at a school in Minab, southern Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump then declared the conflict would last only "four to five weeks."

However, the fighting has spread across multiple fronts, reaching even the Caspian Sea. The conflict has triggered a global oil supply crisis as the U.S. and Iran vie for control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for more than one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas. An estimated 8,000 to 10,000 people have been killed and tens of thousands wounded. Analysts say the war is also reshaping the world order as new alliances form and old dominant ones begin to crumble.

Has the U.S. Achieved Its Stated Goals?

Washington's initial objectives were not entirely clear. Officials first described the strikes as defensive. Yet, based on pre-war demands and the sometimes contradictory statements from President Trump and U.S. defense officials, the main goals appear to include:

Iran's nuclear program: Despite Trump's claim that the U.S. has "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capability, Washington and Israel still assert Tehran is only weeks away from building a nuclear weapon. Repeated strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have caused major damage, but Tehran is believed to still hold 440 kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for a weapon. The Trump administration wants Iran to hand over this stockpile to the U.S. and commit to fully abandoning uranium enrichment. Iran has refused, though at one point it seemed open to transferring it to a third party. Iran also insists on preserving its civilian nuclear program. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on June 17 later collapsed due to vague wording and disagreements over content. Analyst Clark Summers said the U.S. could claim this goal was met, but Alam Saleh of the Australian National University argued Iran's civilian nuclear program remains intact, and "the U.S. lost even before the war."

Regime change in Iran: On the first day of the war, the U.S. killed leader Khamenei and many other senior officials. Trump also urged the Iranian people to "seize the opportunity to reclaim their country." However, Iran's political leadership remains largely unchanged under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son. Saleh argued that "killing leaders does not equal strategic achievement," even if it is a tactical success.

Ending support for proxy forces: Iran's "axis of resistance" network, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and various armed groups in Iraq and Syria, continues to operate. Hezbollah has fought alongside Iran, and the Houthis have blockaded Saudi Arabia at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This demand was absent from the MoU between the two sides.

Ballistic missile program: Washington vowed to "flatten" Iran's missile and naval facilities. Trump claimed about 82% of Iran's missiles had been destroyed. Yet, Iran continues to launch missiles, most recently in an attack in July that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan. The demand to end the ballistic missile program was also missing from the July MoU.

Control of Iran's oil: In June, Trump announced he would seize and control Kharg Island, the heart of Iran's oil industry. To date, the U.S. has not controlled any Iranian territory.

Who Gains, Who Loses?

Strait of Hormuz: Shortly after the war began, Iran virtually closed the strategic strait. Ship traffic fell from over 100 vessels per day to an average of about five. The U.S. responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, which continues. Iran is negotiating with Oman over the waterway's future and recently agreed to a jointly controlled shipping route. Iran sees the strait as its main leverage in the fight against what it calls an "existential threat."

Economy: Iran's economy has been hit hard as the rial nearly collapsed, food prices soared, and oil revenues fell by at least $6 billion due to the blockade. On the U.S. side, gasoline prices doubled in some states like California, making the war deeply unpopular. A July poll showed two-thirds of Americans opposed the conflict. Analysts warn this could hurt Republicans in the November midterm elections.

Ally relations: Iran faces backlash from Gulf neighbors after attacking infrastructure in Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. The U.S., meanwhile, has seen refusals from NATO allies. Spain, Italy, and Germany condemned the war; France rejected a request to send warships; and Gulf allies, Pakistan, Turkey, Japan, Australia, and South Korea have not joined the fight.

Military capability: Iran has suffered heavy losses in its ballistic missile arsenal and military bases, but it continues to produce and deploy low-cost Shahed drones. About 1,221 Iranian soldiers were killed as of April. The U.S. has lost 18 troops and over 750 wounded, but according to U.S. media, Pentagon weapons stockpiles are severely depleted, especially Patriot interceptor missiles. In August, the U.S. signed a $22.9 billion contract with Raytheon to increase Tomahawk cruise missile production from 60 to over 1,000 per year.

Is There a Victor?

Observers say no side has achieved total victory. Professor Alam Saleh commented: "Both have gained nothing." The U.S. has failed to translate military superiority into tangible gains. He also noted that China and Russia are watching Washington's weaknesses, which could affect future military calculations, especially regarding Taiwan as the U.S. has moved its last Pacific aircraft carrier to the Middle East. "Iran's survival does not mean it has won. This may be a U.S. defeat, but it is not Iran's victory," Saleh said.