Six months after the US-Iran conflict erupted, the situation has not descended into the quagmire that critics of President Donald Trump's administration once feared. Instead, Trump has outlined a more patient strategy that is steadily advancing toward its stated goals.
The quick victory some initially envisioned by destroying Iran's military power has given way to a slow and steady tightening of the economic noose, aimed at cutting off the economic oxygen Tehran needs to survive. Though the conflict is far from over, signs indicate this new focus is working.
Most notably, Iran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz is visibly waning. Data from analytics firm Kpler shows the northern route Iran claims to control accounts for only a small fraction of tanker traffic, while more than 80% of transits are classified as unidentified, with some vessels using alternative routes, including the US-backed southern Oman corridor. Iran's oil exports through the strait have also collapsed due to the US naval blockade.
On the nuclear program, airstrikes in June 2025 on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inflicted real damage by destroying Iran's capability to convert enriched uranium into metal for weapons use and significantly degrading its centrifuge production base. However, Iran continues to build and reinforce at Pickaxe Mountain, a deep underground complex analysts believe could be used to rebuild parts of its uranium enrichment program.
The collapse of the June memorandum is seen by the opposition as an admission of Washington's failure. But for the Trump administration, Iran's continued activities at Pickaxe Mountain and attacks on shipping confirm that Tehran does not honor agreements.
The pressure campaign has also taken a heavy toll on Iran's economy: poverty is rising sharply, the currency has nearly lost its value, natural gas output has plummeted due to airstrikes, and trade with China—its largest remaining customer—has dropped significantly. However, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to use "completely different" weapons if fighting resumes.
President Trump's recent willingness to step back from further airstrikes in favor of sustained economic strangulation is seen as strategic patience. Two earlier negotiation attempts in April and June both failed because Iran lacked goodwill. Analysts suggest a new negotiation effort, backed by the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, an expanded sanctions campaign, and threats to strike Pickaxe Mountain, will give Washington a stronger hand than in the previous two rounds.
Six months into the conflict, the US has not won, but it has turned victory from a distant hope into a realistic possibility after decades of previous US administrations failing by rushing to compromise with a regime that has no intention of honoring commitments.
