Mali military, with Russian mercenary support, launches airstrikes against rebel alliance

Mali's military airstrikes on the northern town of Kidal, which fell to rebel forces in late April, mark the latest escalation in the conflict. Witnesses reported that the strikes destroyed a house near the old market and left a bomb crater in the grounds of the governor's residence.

The rebel offensive in April targeted strategic towns, government forces, and Russian mercenaries with ambushes, car bombs, drones, and raids, causing significant casualties. Mali's Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed in a suicide attack on his residence in the garrison town of Kati, 15 kilometers northwest of the capital Bamako. The head of military intelligence also died.

The rebel alliance, merging the al-Qaida-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) with the Tuareg-dominated Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), has continued military operations, attacking dozens of military outposts in central and northern Mali and imposing a strict blockade on Bamako.

Analysts say a fuel blockade imposed by JNIM last year created severe problems for the junta, pushing it to the brink of collapse, and a new blockade is now strangling the capital. The city is under a strict curfew, and a wave of arrests has been reported.

At a press conference in Bamako last week, Malian army commander Djibrilla Maiga claimed that at least two main roads out of the capital remain open and that Malian forces have neutralized several hundred terrorists since the April attacks.

Nina Wilén, director of the Africa program at the Egmont Institute, a Brussels-based international relations think tank, said the ruling junta has shown some resilience after being heavily hit by the rebel offensive. "They are fighting back," she said. "There has been no mutiny or coup. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but ... they are still fighting, and that is remarkable."

However, government forces have so far failed to reclaim most of the territory lost last month, despite the support of roughly 2,000 to 2,500 Russian mercenaries deployed by the Kremlin to Mali, a former French colony, in 2021.

Hundreds of civilians have been killed in recent weeks, most in attacks on villages in the central Mopti region claimed by JNIM, where the dead included many members of pro-government vigilante forces. A JNIM spokesman said the villages were targeted after breaking agreements reached with the group.

Wilén noted that these attacks are a reminder that JNIM remains a terrorist organization and violent extremists. She said: "JNIM doesn't chop off hands as punishment for theft like the Islamic State followers in the Sahel, and they want to rule over the people, so they do a little bit of work to win hearts and minds."

Islamist militancy has grown across the Sahel region over the past 20 years, fueled by fierce competition for scarce resources, sectarian tensions, decades of conflict leaving vast quantities of weapons, and governments' failure to provide basic services or security. Last year, nearly 70% of global terrorism-related deaths occurred in just five countries, three of them in the Sahel.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned last week that the deteriorating security situation in Mali and the broader Sahel region is driving a humanitarian crisis marked by rising violence against civilians, mass displacement, and growing food insecurity. Guterres called for dialogue and cooperation among regional states to address violent extremism and terrorism.