Trump inadvertently strengthens Russia-China ties

Before winning a second term in 2024, Donald Trump declared he would ‘split’ Russia and China, arguing that Joe Biden had pushed the two countries together. Yet Trump’s recent policies have followed the same counterproductive path, inadvertently driving the Russia-China alliance forward.

The clearest evidence: Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Russian President Vladimir Putin for a visit just days after Xi’s summit with Trump in Washington. The two leaders appear set for a closed-door meeting to coordinate positions after the U.S.-China summit outcome.

The Iran war has given powerful new impetus to Russia-China relations. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made China heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies, filling Moscow’s coffers and providing additional financing for its military campaign in Ukraine.

Trade data shows bilateral trade volume rose nearly 20% in the first four months of 2025. Energy cooperation has also expanded. Ahead of his Moscow visit, President Putin mentioned ‘significant progress’ in the oil and gas sector.

In September 2024, just three months after Israel’s attack on Iran, Chinese companies signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia’s Gazprom to increase gas imports via two pipelines from 48 to 56 billion cubic meters. The long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project was also brought back to the negotiating table. Chinese exports of components and technology have also helped Russia’s defense industry maintain operations amid demand from the Ukrainian front.

Beyond economics, what truly binds Beijing and Moscow now is a shared view of the U.S.-led West and the threat they believe the West poses to the world. Regarding the United States as a rogue and irrational actor has fundamentally drawn the two countries closer.

Yet this bond was never inevitable. In the 19th century, the Russian Empire joined Western colonial powers in carving up China. Soviet leader Joseph Stalin helped the Chinese Communist Party seize power in 1949, but after his death the two communist states became rivals, each accusing the other of revisionism. Until the Soviet Union’s final years, Moscow still saw Beijing more as an enemy than a friend. The emergence of a U.S.-dominated unipolar order pushed them together, albeit with lingering suspicions. Successive U.S. administrations accelerated this process: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama expanded NATO to Russia’s borders; Joe Biden escalated the proxy war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Washington’s provocative statements on Taiwan angered Beijing.

Trump promised a different approach but quickly fell into old patterns. He was expected to end ‘Biden’s war’ in Ukraine but has not done so. In fact, his policy on the conflict remains ambiguous. During his first term he supported torpedoing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. His current administration pushes Russia-Ukraine talks, but not so forcefully as to harm the U.S. defense industry. At the same time, he has tried to pressure China on trade with limited results.

On Iran, Trump has allowed himself to be swayed by neoconservatives, focusing on support for Israel. He launched a war he hoped would end in 4-6 weeks, but it has now stretched into its third month with no quick resolution in sight. China watches both conflicts with alarm over the U.S. and the West: Are they truly mad enough to trigger a global energy crisis while pushing Russia to the nuclear brink, even as they wage a trade war with the world’s largest economy?

Today, the destruction from U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, along with the assassinations of Iranian leaders, serve as powerful motives for Moscow and Beijing to coordinate their actions and avoid separate deals with Washington. Given Trump’s famously short attention span, he may not remember he once sought to divide Russia and China — but the two countries do remember. Xi’s invitation to Putin right after Trump’s visit sends a strong signal to Washington: the Russia-China alliance is stronger than ever.