Trump endorses Ken Paxton in Texas Senate primary

Former US President Donald Trump has officially endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary for the US Senate, set to take place next week.

In a lengthy post on Truth Social, Trump praised Paxton as “extremely loyal to me and our incredible MAGA MOVEMENT,” while criticizing his opponent, incumbent Senator John Cornyn, for failing to support Trump when “times were tough.”

In March, Trump declared that any candidate not receiving his endorsement should “DROP OUT OF THE RACE.”

To secure the Republican nomination in Texas, a candidate must win a clear majority of the vote. However, neither candidate reached that threshold in the early March primary.

Texas also operates an open primary system, meaning voters do not need to be registered with a party to vote in that party's primary. However, voters must commit to voting in only one party's primary.

Paxton, 63, has long been considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination but faces a tougher general election. He has never lost an election, despite a political career marred by controversy, including an extramarital affair and criminal charges for securities fraud. Paxton has also been impeached, including by members of his own party.

Recent polls show the Republican primary race is very tight. A poll from early May by Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super PAC aligned with Senator Cornyn, 74, showed the incumbent leading by 1 point. Meanwhile, a poll by the Lone Star Liberty PAC, backed by a super PAC supporting Paxton, showed Paxton ahead by 11 points.

More independent polls, such as one from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Policy, showed Paxton with a 3-point advantage.

Some Texas Republican politicians have expressed concerns about Paxton's viability in the general election. State Representative Matt Shaheen wrote on social media platform X that “Ken Paxton would be a disaster for Texas conservatives!”

The Republican nominee will face a challenging general election. Polls show Democrat nominee James Talarico either leading or within the margin of error. A new poll from the Barbara Jordan Center for Public Policy Research and Surveying showed that in a general election matchup, Talarico ties Paxton, while Cornyn would lead by 1 point.

Other polls show larger gaps. A University of Texas poll showed Talarico winning by 7 points against Cornyn and 8 points against Paxton, while the Texas Public Opinion Research Group showed Talarico leading Paxton by 5 points and Cornyn by 3 points.

Strategists believe the endorsement could also damage Trump's relationship with the current Senate. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston, Texas, told Al Jazeera: “Paxton likely would have won without Trump's endorsement. Now Trump has alienated the Senate Republican majority, especially Senator Thune, who campaigned tirelessly for Trump to endorse Cornyn. He has also created a John Cornyn who, if defeated on May 26, will have little reason to support the Trump administration in the final seven months of his term.”