Trump Publicly Backs Netanyahu as Iran Tensions and Israeli Election Collide

US President Donald Trump on October 18 issued a formal endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's election campaign, after previously steering clear of backing any candidate.

On Truth Social, Trump called Netanyahu "a great warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace," declaring that Iran had been "systematically weakened, both militarily and financially, and if they don't change their ways, FAST, we will soon FINISH THE JOB."

"If Israel has the wrong leader, meaning anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this job ourselves, and I don't intend to do that," Trump wrote.

According to the US president, Netanyahu had been "strong, brave and excellent in the face of tremendous opposition, even from within Israel," and "stood strong, and even stronger." Trump argued that ordinary people would "wilt" under the pressure the Israeli leader has faced, but that Netanyahu had "gotten stronger."

"Please let this letter serve as my COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT of Bibi Netanyahu in the upcoming Israeli Prime Minister race. BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!" Trump wrote.

Israel's election is scheduled for October 27. According to the Haaretz tracker, as of October 18 the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party was projected to win the most seats with 52, while the bloc led by Netanyahu's Likud was projected to take 51 of the Knesset's 120 seats. No party has yet been forecast to win an outright majority.

The public endorsement follows a period in which Trump had avoided fully backing Netanyahu's campaign. Earlier this month, asked twice by TIME whether Netanyahu should be given another term, Trump pivoted to discussing his own approval ratings in Israel and Washington's actions in support of Israel. Asked by Newsmax whether he planned to get involved in the Israeli election, Trump said: "They want me to do it. Yeah, they want me to do it." Asked whether he trusted Netanyahu, he replied: "Honestly, I trust nobody."

According to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House in London, Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu is "politically significant" because it comes after months of tension between the two leaders. The move "allows Netanyahu to reinforce the argument that he is indispensable in Israel's relationship with Washington." She said, however, that the electoral impact should not be overstated, since Israeli voters remain divided over Netanyahu's leadership and the outcome of the war with Iran; the endorsement may help consolidate his existing support base but does not resolve broader questions about his record.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London's School of Security Studies, called Trump's endorsement a "political gift" for Netanyahu at a time when his campaign is struggling. He cautioned, though, against treating it as a game-changer. According to Krieg, Netanyahu's problems are structural, tied to divisions within right-wing parties, lost confidence among Orthodox Jewish voters and the legacy of the October 7 attack. Trump's endorsement could mobilise hesitant Likud voters and may be worth one or two seats in a tight race, but it cannot create the coalition majority Netanyahu currently lacks.

Implications for the Iran war

Much of Trump's endorsement focused on the war with Iran, amid analysts' suggestions that the US president may be considering restarting strikes before or after the US midterm elections in early November.

The conflict began in February after the US and Israel carried out strikes across Iran and is now at a stalemate. The Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that once carried 20% of global crude, has been effectively blockaded by Iran since the fighting began. The US subsequently imposed a naval blockade on Iranian vessels, while both sides have attacked ships transiting the waterway they accuse of defying their orders. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered to pre-war levels last month as the US Navy escorted an increasing number of tankers, but a wave of Iranian attacks on shipping earlier this month again disrupted crude exports through the route.

On the morning of October 19, front-month Brent crude stood at $107.57 a barrel, easing slightly after hitting its highest level since May 19 on October 18, when prices briefly reached $110.

Last month, Iran proposed to Washington that it reopen the shipping lane within seven days, but talks failed after the US did not meet Tehran's seven conditions, including lifting sanctions and ending the naval blockade. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told domestic media on October 18 that the proposal remained on the table and that if Washington accepted Tehran's conditions, the strait could reopen within six days and talks would resume the following day.

The same day, Araghchi alleged on X that Netanyahu wanted to restart strikes on Iran alongside the US in order to "avoid going to prison." "Last time you wanted to 'finish the job,' Iran came out stronger. Want to try your luck again? Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished business too," he wrote. "Netanyahu is dragging America into another war to avoid prison, whatever the consequences for Israel — let alone for the US president."

Krieg assessed that Trump is prioritising "coercive leverage" through his support for Netanyahu, but not necessarily "war instead of diplomacy." According to him, the naval blockade is significantly hurting Iran and Washington believes time is on its side; Trump's calculation is that Iran will eventually accept nuclear concessions and reopen Hormuz without Washington making significant concessions first. "His endorsement reinforces the military threat underpinning that strategy. But that does not mean diplomacy is over. Trump still wants a deal he can present as a win. The risk is that Tehran increasingly believes it must escalate to improve its negotiating position."

What comes next

Vakil said Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu signals renewed political alignment with Israel and leaves open the possibility of joint military action in the future, but also makes it harder for Trump "to distance himself from the war or portray America as a reluctant draftee." According to her, Trump is "formally owning the partnership and the military campaign against Iran," though the endorsement does not necessarily mean the two leaders have agreed on another operation, nor does it settle the question of who pushed hardest for war in the first place.

Vakil added that for Tehran, the statement will reinforce the Iranian leadership's belief that there is "very little substantive difference between US and Israeli objectives." At the same time, Trump's suggestion that he would be reluctant to confront Iran without Netanyahu could be read as evidence of limits on Washington's appetite for another war.

Meanwhile, although Trump has said he will not attack Iran before the November midterms, some US media outlets have reported that the Pentagon has drawn up plans to restart strikes before voters go to the polls. Last week, Axios quoted US and Israeli officials as saying both Trump and Netanyahu had discussed launching a major new campaign against Iran before elections in both countries.

For Krieg, the likelihood of a US and Israeli strike on Iran remains low, assuming no Iranian attack forces a response. "The more dangerous window opens after November 3 (the US midterms), when electoral constraints disappear. The militaries of both countries are preparing for that possibility. The biggest immediate risk is an uncontrolled escalation in Hormuz that forces Washington to act before either leader is politically ready," he said.