Is Trump Signaling a Return to War With Iran After the Midterms?

US President Donald Trump says he has no intention of bombing Iran again before the November midterm elections, despite reports in several US media outlets that the Pentagon has already prepared plans to restart strikes before voting day.

In the past, Trump has been accused of deflecting public attention on this issue. The US carried out its first strikes on Iran on February 28, while negotiations with Tehran were still under way and just a day after Trump insisted he had made no decision. A year earlier, the US bombed Iran in the closing phase of Israel's 12-day war in June 2025, even though Trump had said he would announce a decision on strikes "within two weeks."

Striking Iran before the midterms, however, would be a risky move for the administration, because the war remains deeply unpopular with the American public. Resuming hostilities after the election could prove less damaging for Trump, who is in any case ineligible to run for another presidential term.

What have US media reported?

Over the past two days, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and several other publications, citing unnamed officials, reported that the Pentagon has drafted plans to strike Iran before the midterms if authorized.

On Wednesday, the US outlet Axios, citing US and Israeli officials, said the Pentagon had instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) to prepare for major combat operations in the near future. The Atlantic reported along similar lines.

What has Trump said?

On Thursday, Trump posted on Truth Social that he would not order a resumption of airstrikes on Iran before November 3, the date of the US midterm elections.

"I want to make it clear to everyone that, while Iran is in a very bad situation... we will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections take place in the US on November 3," he said.

The US president added that Washington is currently having "constructive discussions" with Iran. The situation on February 28 — when the US and Israel first bombed Iran, starting the war — was similar, however.

Trump did not mention preparations for potential military operations, nor did he provide further details on the state of the negotiations.

Why might Trump hesitate to resume bombing before the midterms?

Trump and the Republican Party fear a voter backlash over the war at the ballot box. The US war with Iran is strongly opposed at home as Americans face surging prices for gasoline, food and many other essentials because of the crisis in the Middle East.

Since the fighting began, surveys have shown that a large share of Americans disapprove of the airstrikes on Iran.

About 65 percent of Americans now say they "disapprove" of Trump's handling of the Iran war overall, according to a Pew Research Center survey released on Thursday. Trump claimed when the fighting began that the war would last only a few weeks, but it is now in its eighth month.

According to Pew, most Americans now believe the war will continue for at least another year. The survey shows that even Republican or conservative-leaning voters are increasingly negative about the war.

The conflict has also dealt a serious blow to Trump's personal approval ratings and eroded support for the Republican Party. A Reuters/Ipsos survey on Thursday found that only 30 percent of Trump supporters are enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, compared with 48 percent of Democratic voters.

About 13 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 say they are not sure whom they will vote for in the congressional elections.

Analysts say delaying strikes until after the election could partly shield Republican candidates from voter backlash.

According to analysts, Trump would view a good election result as an endorsement for new airstrikes, but a Republican defeat at the polls could also push him further toward striking Iran again, on the calculation that he would then have nothing left to lose.

While that could further damage Trump's approval ratings, the US president is in any case ineligible to run in the next presidential election.

Will the US restart the war after the midterms?

In recent weeks, the US president has threatened to "finish" the war by force after the election, as negotiations with Iran drag on.

At a Republican conference in September, he accused Iran of trying to influence the outcome of the midterms and said the conflict "will end right after the election."

In an interview with Time magazine two weeks ago, he also said intensifying bombing of Iran after the election was "possible," but declined to elaborate. Analysts say his remarks are meant to reassure voters while warning Iran about the possibility of being attacked after the vote.

Last week, the US military deployed about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines aboard a number of ships heading to the Middle East, as Trump threatened new strikes. The flotilla includes the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.

The deployment brings the number of US troops in the region to 20,000, along with hundreds of aircraft and at least three carrier strike groups.

Previously, US military buildups in the Middle East and the Caribbean have led to military action afterward.

In June, Washington and Tehran signed a ceasefire agreement, but the deal quickly collapsed over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has repeatedly said the US holds the advantage at the strait, citing higher oil exports and Iran's weakened economy. He has also expressed dislike for reaching a deal with Tehran over managing Hormuz, but said he might consider one because "they are ready to give us everything to stop."

Washington rejected Iran's recent proposal to reopen the strait on the basis of conditions Tehran wants the US to meet, including lifting sanctions, releasing Iranian assets and guaranteeing an end to the strikes. Last week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was considering a counter-proposal from the US side.