Xi Jinping expected to pressure Trump on Taiwan and tariffs

Taipei, Taiwan – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to seek concessions from U.S. President Donald Trump on Taiwan and tariffs during a summit held amid escalating tensions linked to the war with Iran.

Mr. Trump will arrive in China on Wednesday evening for a three-day visit, marking the first time a U.S. leader has visited the country since 2017, when Mr. Trump made an early-term trip.

Unlike Mr. Trump – known for his unpredictable decisions – Mr. Xi is said to have clear goals for the summit, particularly Beijing's long-standing core interests regarding national security and territorial integrity, with Taiwan at the top of the list.

While the Taiwan administration considers itself a de facto sovereign state, Beijing views the island as an inalienable part of its territory. The U.S. formally severed ties with Taiwan decades ago but remains committed to defending the self-governing democracy under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. Washington has provided billions of dollars in weapons and cooperation in areas such as military training and intelligence sharing, which Beijing views as interference in its internal affairs.

During a phone call last month with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made clear that Taiwan would be raised at the summit, describing it as “the biggest risk in U.S.-China relations.” The Chinese Embassy in Washington also emphasized that Taiwan is one of four “red lines” that must not be challenged.

Although analysts say the U.S. is unlikely to change its stance on Taiwan, Mr. Trump said this week that the agenda would include arms sales to the island, raising questions about the future of a stalled $14 billion weapons deal. The U.S. Congress approved the package earlier this year, but it still requires Mr. Trump's final approval.

William Yang, an analyst at Crisis Group based in Taipei, said Mr. Xi would use the meetings to “influence and persuade Trump to agree to scale back, if not completely suspend, arms sales to Taiwan.” If Mr. Trump concedes, it would break a longstanding policy of not consulting Beijing that dates back to President Ronald Reagan. Canceling or diluting the deal would be a major blow to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who is locked in a defense budget battle with the opposition.

Restoring the U.S.-China relationship framework

Beyond Taiwan, Mr. Xi also wants to mend U.S.-China relations after 18 turbulent months during which Mr. Trump launched a second trade war against the world's second-largest economy. Tensions escalated with retaliatory tariffs exceeding 100%, along with other measures such as export controls, before a pause in May.

During their last meeting in South Korea in October, Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump agreed to halt the trade war for one year while maintaining some measures, including tariffs and export controls. Last month, the U.S. imposed new sanctions targeting Chinese companies, including refineries accused of buying Iranian oil and firms helping Tehran produce drones and missiles. In response, Beijing issued a “ban” ordering businesses to ignore these sanctions.

“Beijing wants stability and certainty for the remainder of Mr. Trump's term until January 2029, as they need to plan economic policy,” said Feng Chucheng, founding partner of Hutong Research. This includes understanding the tariff levels the U.S. will apply to China and regional trade partners.

Wang Wen, dean of the School of Global Leadership at Renmin University in Beijing, said China hopes to return to a relationship based on “peaceful coexistence, mutual respect, and mutually beneficial cooperation.” For Hung Pu-chao of Tunghai University in Taiwan, restoring stable U.S.-China relations is a way to reduce risk. Instead of seeking concessions, China's priority is to “adjust the current unfavorable strategic position and negotiation pace, bringing U.S.-China interaction back into a more controllable framework.”

At the summit, Mr. Xi may agree to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, as well as support Mr. Trump's plan to establish a “Trade Council” and an “Investment Council” to oversee economic relations. However, China is unlikely to make concessions in rare earths unless the U.S. offers significant political concessions, according to Mr. Feng.

Call for dialogue on war with Iran

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran will be a prominent issue at the summit. Though not a direct party to the conflict, China is affected by economic impacts, especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – which carries one-fifth of the global oil and gas supply. Beijing has called for negotiations and a comprehensive ceasefire since the conflict began.

Jodie Wen, a postdoctoral researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said Mr. Xi will repeat this message in talks with Mr. Trump, arguing that war has major impacts on the world, Asian countries, and the U.S., so dialogue is necessary. Mr. Trump said Tuesday he does not need China's “help” to resolve the war, but the White House has pressured Beijing to influence Iran to reopen the strait. China has had a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran since 2016 and buys over 80% of its oil from the country. Ms. Wen stressed that China is unlikely to agree to play any role other than mediator, consistent with its long-standing “non-interference” foreign policy principle.