British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is weathering a sustained undercurrent of rebellion within the Labour Party, even as no formal challenge has yet been mounted against his leadership. Instead, a 'slow coup' is unfolding that could leave the UK in a state of leadership limbo for weeks, with an uncertain outcome.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch taunted Starmer, declaring: 'The Prime Minister shows he sits in the chair but has no power.' This was a deliberate echo of former Chancellor Norman Lamont's words to Prime Minister John Major in 1993.
Unlike the Conservatives, Labour has never had a sitting Prime Minister face a formal no-confidence vote. Under party rules, 20% of MPs must back a challenger before a full leadership election can be triggered. This explains why Labour coups tend to be protracted and difficult to pull off.
The disastrous local election results on 7 May, when Labour lost 1,498 council seats in England and control of the Welsh Parliament, galvanised the party's internal opposition. British media reported that at least three cabinet ministers — including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper — have discreetly asked Starmer to set out a resignation timeline.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned from the cabinet on 14 May, stating plainly in his resignation letter: 'It has become clear that you will not lead Labour into the next general election.' Streeting confirmed he would stand in any leadership contest but has not formally challenged Starmer.
Starmer's most likely successor is widely seen as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, nicknamed 'King of the North.' Burnham is the most popular figure among Labour voters and the public, with a net favourability rating of +4, compared to Starmer's -46.
Burnham has not been an MP since 2017. On 14 May, MP Josh Simons of the Makerfield constituency declared he was ready to resign to clear the way for Burnham. Labour's National Executive Committee has already approved Burnham to contest the seat — another sign of Starmer's waning authority.
The by-election in Makerfield, expected on 18 June, has been described as 'the most important since World War II' by Sunday Times commentator Jason Cowley. Nigel Farage's Reform Party has vowed to 'throw everything' at the contest.
If Burnham wins, many British newspapers predict he will almost certainly become the next Prime Minister. One anonymous cabinet minister was quoted as saying: 'If Andy wins Makerfield, Labour MPs will carry him into the Westminster tea room. There is simply no world in which he does not win the leadership.'
Robert Peston, ITV News political editor, observed: 'The timing and manner of Starmer's departure now depends on events, making him a lame-duck prime minister, his words on policy barely audible amid the noise over how and when he will go.'
