Indian PM Modi's bid to isolate Pakistan backfires
Saif Khalid
Indian PM Narendra Modi's decade-old strategy to isolate Pakistan has backfired, as Islamabad now enjoys strong ties with both the US and China, analysts say. India’s miscalculations, including strained US relations and failed evidence-sharing after the 2025 Kashmir conflict, have undermined its efforts.
More than a decade after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to isolate Pakistan on the global stage, Islamabad now enjoys a favorable diplomatic position, courted by both the United States and China. Analysts argue that New Delhi’s strategy has backfired, partly due to India’s own miscalculations.
In September 2016, after an attack that killed 18 Indian soldiers in Kashmir, Modi declared, “India has succeeded in isolating you, and we will intensify those efforts.” Yet a decade later, Pakistan is far from isolated. It remains a close strategic ally of China and has emerged as a trusted partner of the US under President Donald Trump.
Pakistan’s army chief General Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have both visited the White House in the past year. Pakistan has also served as a key intermediary between the US and Iran in the ongoing conflict.
US mediation role
On May 10, 2025, Trump announced a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after four days of intense fighting. The conflict began with an attack that killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, prompting Indian forces to strike into Pakistani territory.
While PM Sharif thanked Trump for his role, Modi remained silent. India insists the ceasefire resulted from bilateral talks with Pakistan, rejecting third-party mediation. Trump, however, has repeatedly claimed he averted a nuclear war. Pakistan even nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Broken isolation strategy
The Modi government shifted India’s earlier doctrine of “strategic restraint,” lowering the threshold for military retaliation. But after the 2025 conflict, India failed to convince the international community of Pakistan’s involvement in the initial attack.
“The world did not side with India,” said Michael Kugelman, an expert at the Atlantic Council. “Capitals noted India did not provide evidence of Pakistan’s involvement.”
Strained US-India ties
Washington and New Delhi were already tense over trade tariffs. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India but continued trade pressure. Meanwhile, Trump embraced Pakistan, inviting General Munir to the White House and calling him a “terrific guy.”
Regional geopolitics
India abandoned the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to isolate Pakistan, but this cost New Delhi a key diplomatic platform. Pakistan, meanwhile, strengthened ties with China, receiving air defense systems and fighter jets from Beijing. Saudi Arabia also signed a joint defense treaty with Pakistan in September 2025.
Modi-era diplomacy
India has abandoned its traditional non-alignment policy, stopped buying Iranian oil under US sanctions pressure, and become a close ally of Israel. Domestic anti-Muslim policies have cost India standing in the Muslim world, allowing Pakistan to lead UN campaigns against Islamophobia.
Ishtiaq Ahmad, a scholar at Quaid-i-Azam University, says Pakistan is now seen as a “shaper of regional outcomes,” able to engage simultaneously with Washington, Tehran, Riyadh, and Beijing.
Recent signs suggest India is recognizing its limitations. Retired generals and diplomats from both countries have met twice in the past three months. India is also seeking to mend ties with the US; Rubio’s visit is seen as a first step.
