Japanese Delegation Visits Beijing as Ties with China Hit Historic Low

A delegation of Japanese lawmakers arrived in Beijing this week as bilateral ties between the two countries experience their most strained period since the 1970s. Observers suggest the visit may be Tokyo's attempt to improve relations with China.

The delegation includes Gaku Hashimoto, a Lower House member from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, along with legislators from the opposition Komeito party and the Centrist Reform Alliance.

Background of Tensions

Diplomatic friction began in November last year when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could “constitute a situation threatening Japan's survival” and justify the use of force.

The remarks sparked outrage in Beijing. The following day, Xue Jian, China's Consul General in Osaka, wrote on social media platform X: “We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck,” alongside a post about Takaichi. The post was later removed.

Tokyo protested and demanded disciplinary action against the official; Beijing refused and instead warned citizens against traveling to Japan, along with tightening trade restrictions.

This year, China has continued to escalate tensions by restricting exports of dual-use goods and rare earths—materials essential for manufacturing high-tech products from smartphones to fighter jets.

Relations at Lowest Point

In November last year, Beijing imposed a ban on Japanese seafood following Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan. By January, China restricted exports of dual-use goods and rare-earth minerals for defense or military purposes.

In February, China's Ministry of Commerce added 40 Japanese entities to a list of trade restrictions related to dual-use goods. It also issued a separate “watch list” of 20 companies for which Chinese exporters must apply for individual licenses, submit risk assessment reports, and provide written commitments that goods will not be used for military purposes.

China also issued travel advisories recommending citizens avoid Japan, aiming to affect Japan's important tourism industry.

Shinichi Isa, a politician who served at the Japanese Embassy in China, said bilateral relations have hit their lowest point since diplomatic normalization in 1972. In a post on X earlier this month, he wrote that even in past difficult periods, officials maintained contact, but “now all channels of communication between officials and ministries have been severed.”

Dylan Loh, associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said bilateral relations “have hit their lowest point in recent memory; communication is stalled, and there is even more distrust at both elite and popular levels.”

Economic Impact

Chinese visitor arrivals to Japan fell from 715,700 in October 2025 to 330,000 in December, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in February. Travelers from mainland China and Hong Kong typically account for about one-fifth of total tourist arrivals.

However, the report also showed the economic impact has been minimal, partly due to the weak yen, as spending by tourists from Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, and Hong Kong offset the decline in Chinese visitors.

China's export restrictions on rare earths are more concerning. China supplies about 80% of Japan's imported rare earths. From November 2025 to May 2026, China shipped no dysprosium or terbium oxide to Japan—elements essential for producing high-performance magnets for various technological applications, fluorescent lamps, and nuclear and defense components.

Automakers Nissan and Suzuki have reported supply disruptions due to these restrictions.

Masahiro Matsumura, professor of international politics and national security at St. Andrew's University in Osaka, said the impact would be addressed in the medium and long term through supply diversification, but Japan remains dependent on China for certain critical items, which he described as a “major headache” for the government and Japanese high-tech companies.

Beijing remains welcoming to Japanese direct investment, even as many Japanese investors have begun to leave China. China has also not tightened controls on yen-denominated capital flows as it does with dollar outflows. “Beijing has taken a selective approach toward Japan,” Matsumura noted.

The Role of the United States

Experts say the United States remains Japan's trusted ally, but not as before. There are concerns in Japan and other U.S. allies in Asia as Washington redeploys some military assets out of the region to meet needs in the Middle East, where the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continues.

Last week, the U.S. moved its last aircraft carrier stationed in Asia from Japan to the Middle East, following earlier reports that the U.S. had transferred part of its THAAD missile defense system from South Korea for use against Iran.

These moves seem to have emboldened Beijing, as China's fleet advances beyond the First Island Chain—a line running from northern Japan through Taiwan and the northern Philippines to Borneo.

William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said that U.S. redeployments out of the region weaken Washington's ability to project power in Asia and respond to Chinese threats. However, Taiwanese and Japanese security experts believe U.S. interests and its aircraft carriers may ultimately return to Asia.

Prospects for Reconciliation

Experts say it is too early to draw conclusions, but this week's visit of a multiparty delegation to China is a positive sign. While no substantive results are expected, it is a “modest beginning” that at least allows dialogue, said Loh.

However, Matsumura warned that politicians traveling to Beijing in so-called “parliamentary group diplomacy” do not necessarily align with the policy approach of the Takaichi administration. “Even within the LDP, there is an underlying struggle between the anti-China/pro-U.S. faction and the pro-China/anti-U.S. faction,” he said.

In other words, this delegation may reflect more about who in Tokyo wants to open channels of dialogue rather than the stance of Prime Minister Takaichi.