Ukraine Fears US Intel Sharing Cut as Russia Steps Up Air Strikes

Kyiv, Ukraine – Russian ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine this week killed at least 15 people and wounded dozens more, mirroring hundreds of earlier attacks. This time, however, there was one difference: air-raid sirens sounded only seconds before or after the missiles slammed into apartment blocks, power plants and warehouses.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's partners did not supply NATO early-warning satellite intelligence data this week, as tensions between Washington and Kyiv escalated. He did not name the United States directly, and President Donald Trump has denied that Washington stopped sharing intelligence.

A military satellite constellation can detect Russian ballistic missile launches through the heat flare of the rockets just seconds after liftoff. That warning typically gives Ukrainians up to 10 minutes – precious time to sound sirens and send emergency alerts, allowing people to reach shelters in time. "That is what helps prevent killings," Zelenskyy said. Ukraine's ground-based radar can only detect incoming missiles once they reach speeds of 6,000 to 12,000 km/h.

Pressure from Washington

Despite Trump's denial, Ukrainian observers believe the US president wants to help Republicans win more seats in Congress in the upcoming midterm elections by pressuring Kyiv to declare an "energy ceasefire" with Moscow, thereby pushing global oil prices down.

Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, a former deputy chief of the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces, told Al Jazeera that Trump is pressuring the president and Ukraine to "gain advantage by whatever means necessary in the election campaign." He said the lack of intelligence data "significantly affects air-defense effectiveness; we have no time to react." Without satellite data, Ukraine's drones and missiles also "lose accuracy when striking targets deep inside Russian territory."

On Sunday, Trump announced the energy ceasefire, under which the two sides would not attack each other's energy infrastructure, from Russian oil refineries and fuel depots to Ukrainian power and heating plants. "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides have agreed. DO NOT BREAK IT!" Trump wrote on social media. Kyiv said the announcement came as a surprise, while Moscow did not confirm support and continued striking Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

According to Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych, Trump's pressure is aimed not only at oil refineries but at quickly reopening, mediating and concluding peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow, even if that benefits the Kremlin. "He needs successful peace talks. Ideally, some kind of unblocking in the peace process, where Kyiv shows more willingness to agree to Russia's demands," Tyshkevych said. He argued the pressure will continue until "Kyiv shows readiness to compromise and make concessions to Russia." Moscow is "simply taking advantage" of the pressure and the suspension of air-raid warnings to escalate its attacks on Ukraine.

Kyiv's Priority: Destroying Oil Refineries

The suspension of data sharing is particularly shocking because Kyiv had halted strikes on Russian oil refineries for three days. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksander Novak, it was not until Wednesday that Ukrainian drones attacked refineries in the Saratov and Ryazan regions.

However, another observer argues that Kyiv's focus on oil refineries is ineffective and counterproductive. Nikolay Mitrokhin of the University of Bremen in Germany told Al Jazeera: "Kyiv's strategic priority remains destroying oil refineries." Yet Russia has weathered the initial shock by shipping gas from Siberian plants and importing from neighboring Belarus and Kazakhstan. There has been no economic collapse, mass unemployment or public protests after the attacks, while Moscow continues its air campaign, adding jet-powered drones that resemble cruise missiles and are hard for Ukraine's existing air defenses to shoot down.

Mitrokhin asked: "What is the basis for Kyiv's and its supporters' belief that strikes on refineries and depots will lead to Russia's strategic defeat before Ukraine is defeated? I don't understand." In his view, Ukrainian attacks on data centers, bridges and drone assembly plants are far more effective. Recent strikes on the data centers of Russian online giant Yandex and state bank Sberbank disrupted services in Russia and in former Soviet republics where Yandex operates online payments, food delivery and taxi services.

Mitrokhin also noted that Trump "did not ask him to stop the war, cede cities or halt attacks on the Russian rear in general." Kyiv has repeatedly said it is ready to begin peace talks if there is a ceasefire first, but Moscow wants to keep up ground attacks and air strikes until peace terms are finalized – a process that could take months or even years.

"We Are Ready for Any Scenario"

On Wednesday, Ukraine's official in charge of drones accused Elon Musk's SpaceX of restricting Starlink terminals belonging to the military-grade Starshield system. Serhiy Beskrestnov said SpaceX abruptly and without warning restricted service for terminals mounted on drones flying above 160 km/h. The limit affects key interceptor drones, and presidential adviser Serhii Sternenko suggested it followed a request from Trump. Musk said the White House owns and controls the Starshield system, and that any speed limits are decided by Trump.

Some military analysts warn the restriction could lead to Starlink being shut down entirely for Ukraine, harming the quality of all military communications. Andriy Pronin told Al Jazeera: "But we have prepared for everything. We knew it could happen, so we are ready for any scenario."

In September 2022, Musk secretly ordered engineers to switch off Starlink coverage over Russian-occupied Kherson region, hampering Kyiv's efforts to retake it, according to Reuters. In 2023, Musk threatened to cut Ukraine's military access to Starlink unless the Pentagon paid the costs. The Pentagon, Poland and other European allies later took on the costs.