Tunisians' simmering anger rises beneath a surface of silence

Five years after Tunisian President Kais Saied's contentious power grab, few of the hopes that once illuminated the region after the country's historic 2011 revolution remain intact. The sense of citizen participation in building a new constitution and democratic order after the revolution has all but evaporated. The political debates that once dominated radio and television waves have given way to sports and entertainment programming.

The economy—which was the springboard for the 2011 revolution and the pretext for Saied's 2021 "self-coup"—is being left to deteriorate. Amid scorching heatwaves and wildfires, electricity cuts have become a daily occurrence, fueling public frustration.

July 25 protests

On July 25, thousands took to the streets in the capital Tunis to protest what they see as Saied's increasingly authoritarian grip on power and worsening living conditions, facing off with his supporters, who waved flags and called for the imprisonment of "traitors."

Tunisia's press, subdued by a sweeping media crackdown, covered the protests cautiously. Salsabil Chellali, Tunisia director at Human Rights Watch, told Al Jazeera that there is a growing sense that criticizing the government will not be tolerated.

"Five years ago, Kais Saied buried Tunisia's democratic transition and dragged the country back to authoritarianism," Chellali said. "His record is a human rights crisis: dismantling the rule of law, targeting the opposition, civil society, and the media, stripping Tunisians of their civil and political rights and their right to participate in public affairs. No critic is safe under his rule."

Heat exposes lack of planning

Wildfires still raging have been estimated to have burned 4,400 hectares (about two-thirds the size of Paris), despite receiving support from Italy and Algeria. The state power and gas company STEG's rolling blackouts to reduce demand from fans and air conditioners during the heatwave are leading to crop losses and damage to Tunisian industry.

"There is no planning at all," an analyst in Tunisia, who spoke anonymously for fear of reprisal, told Al Jazeera. "Usually countries know that when summer arrives, electricity and water demand will rise, so they plan. In Tunisia, we have no money, no investment, and no plan either."

The analyst added: "It's like we're on a ship steered by someone who doesn't know how to handle the sails." Still, Saied retains support from segments of society that remember the legislative paralysis and factionalism of the pre-coup parliament.

While willing to acknowledge the hardships caused by power and water cuts, Saied's supporters in parliament and the media consistently frame the solution as reform rather than change, comparing current difficulties to those caused by the pre-2022 parliament.

Speaking in parliament earlier this week, Speaker Ibrahim Bouderbala called on citizens not to let anger over water and electricity shortages escalate, pointing to other countries that have overcome similar crises through good governance. Saied also declared that power and water cuts "must end immediately" and that he is closely monitoring the situation. He also warned that "the state will act firmly against anyone who tries to exacerbate the situation."

Suppression of dissent

Nearly all critics of the Tunisian government have been jailed or forced into exile. Most of the leadership of Ennahdha, the largest party in the pre-coup parliament, is in prison, including its 85-year-old leader Rached Ghannouchi. After Ghannouchi collapsed in detention last month, possibly due to the heat, his whereabouts and condition remain unknown.

A controversial law criminalizing anything the state deems "false news" and a wave of arrests of prominent figures have silenced critical voices in the media. Most recently, one of the country's most famous political commentators and satirists, Heythem El Mekki, was forced to leave Tunisia after being sentenced to one year in prison for social media comments made three years ago criticizing flaws at the Sfax hospital morgue.

"Censorship is everywhere," Hamza Meddeb, a Tunisian scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera. Power cuts can last up to 12 hours, causing economic and physical hardship. "Livestock are dying. Restaurants are closing. Patients suffer and some elderly people are actually dying," Meddeb said. "That anger has to go somewhere. It targets state power and water companies, sometimes the government, but never the person in control: the president."

Meddeb, like many other Tunisian journalists and scholars, has relocated to France. But for those who remain, they have little choice but to self-censor or avoid the issue.

Little hope for reform

Saied's entrenchment in Tunisia's power structure appears reinforced by support from external actors. The European Union, wary of migration flows from Tunisia's coast, has quietly prioritized stability over democracy. The EU has signed several support agreements with the Tunisian government, despite concerns from migration and human rights groups.

Neighboring Algeria and Libya also have no desire for a chaotic neighbor. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune declared earlier this week that he is ready to protect Tunisia against "any threat" to its stability.

Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa director at Crisis Group, argued that under Saied, Tunisia will remain "stuck in his own delusions, his own worldview... where everything bad is the result of a conspiracy against him." "Nearly all of Tunisia's external partners have given up on the idea of reform," Fabiani added.

Al Jazeera contacted the Tunisian Prime Minister's office for comment on this story but did not receive a response.