Israelis Vote Amid Internal Divisions and Prolonged Violence

Israel's general election, scheduled for October 27, is described by analysts, sociologists, and pollsters as a moment of existential significance. Unlike previous elections, where political fault lines largely revolved around positions on the Palestinians, this vote takes place amid broad consensus among Jewish voters to set aside the Palestinian issue and the two-state solution.

Palestinian citizens of Israel eligible to vote now pin their hopes on a governing coalition that could curb the violence and lawlessness in their communities.

Aftermath of October 7, 2023

Overhanging the entire election is the shadow of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, which killed 1,139 people and triggered Israel's military campaign in Gaza. National broadcasters continually replay footage from that day, keeping the public focused on who bears responsibility for the security failure, rather than on the fate of more than 73,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly cited ongoing wars to delay establishing a state commission of inquiry into the attacks and to postpone court proceedings related to his corruption charges.

Prominent sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani said: “A large segment of the public simply wants to remove Netanyahu. Not only because of corruption, but because they feel he is at the center of many of the country's problems. I have the sense that we have reached a point where even Likud members hesitate to vote for him.”

Judicial Overhaul and Institutional Battle

Many Israeli voters are concerned with issues related to governance and democracy. The far-right coalition government has been criticized for pushing past democratic norms, notably its 2023 judicial overhaul aimed at curbing court oversight of the executive. The government is also accused of appointing loyalists to security and civilian positions, while intensifying a campaign against Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has made her dismissal a condition for joining any post-election coalition.

Mairav Zonszein, an expert at the International Crisis Group, said: “Voters' concerns are almost entirely domestic. Most salient is the division over judicial reform. The secular, liberal opposition sees this election as a last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore institutions eroded over Netanyahu's tenure.”

According to Zonszein, Israeli politicians deliberately avoid the Palestinian issue. “The Palestinian issue shifted from being completely ignored to being sidelined but with a consensus that after October 7, the two-state solution is off the table for now.”

Palestinian Voices Left Unheard

Most mainstream Jewish parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Arab parties. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called such a prospect “worse” than the October 7 events. Even the alliance between former Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, which partnered with the Arab Ra'am party in 2021, has not committed to including Palestinian parties in a future coalition.

Violence and organized crime in Palestinian communities continue to rise. This year alone, 158 Palestinian citizens of Israel have been killed. Many believe the government is deliberately allowing this situation to continue, even to discourage Palestinian voters from going to the polls.

Shenhav-Shahrabani observed: “Everything is much grimmer now. From attacks in the West Bank to violence in Palestinian neighborhoods, there is very little empathy for Palestinians in most of Israel.”

The Haredi Conscription Issue

The ultra-Orthodox Haredi community and their parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, will focus on mandatory military service. This tension has become one of the most explosive political fault lines, especially after Israel deployed ground forces in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

Haredi leaders view full-time Torah study as a national mission and a “spiritual shield” for the Jewish people. Thousands of Haredi men blocked roads in Jerusalem in June to protest conscription orders.

The opposition has also made sharp remarks. Yair Golan, a former reserve major general and leader of the Democrats party, was recorded calling Haredim “parasites” living off the rest of Israeli society. Meanwhile, protesters held signs reading: “Your brothers are fighting, and you sit back?”

Political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg said the attention on this issue is puzzling: “This is a world where the death of each soldier is a reason for national mourning, and there's a story of reservists serving over a year of combat everywhere. In that context, Haredi refusal to enlist is hard to ignore.”

These factors could determine the election outcome and shape Israel's political landscape for some time. Given the current political reality, Palestinians in Israel, as well as those in Gaza and the West Bank, have little reason for optimism.