Iran-US diplomacy heats up again with string of visits from Qatar, Oman, Pakistan

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, arrived in Tehran on August 27 to discuss the possibility of reducing tensions and reviving the failed negotiations between Iran and the United States. The visit comes as a series of high-level diplomatic delegations have descended on Tehran in recent days.

A Qatari spokesperson said Sheikh Mohammed would meet with “several Iranian officials” to discuss ending hostilities and “facilitating dialogue.” He is also expected to address the Strait of Hormuz – a critical sea lane that Iran has closed since early March, causing ship traffic – which previously carried more than one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies – to drop by 95%, triggering a crisis in world energy markets.

Rapid succession of diplomatic visits

Before the Qatari Prime Minister's trip, on August 24, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir held meetings with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Iran's new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, General Mohsen Rezaei.

On August 25, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to discuss the Strait of Hormuz – the biggest flashpoint in the conflict. On the same day, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced that the two sides had agreed on a new temporary transit route in the strait, according to which ships would enter Iranian waters, and Tehran would have partial control over exit routes. However, Iran stressed it would not reopen the strait until the United States lifts sanctions and releases its assets.

What stage is the war in?

Nominally, the US and Iran remain in a state of war, with each side declaring the other has failed, despite both suffering economic and political losses. The Trump administration has recently shifted to an economic pressure strategy as reports suggest US interceptor stockpiles in the Middle East may be running low. On August 24, Washington announced a new sanctions package targeting more than 60 individuals and entities across five sectors, while threatening secondary sanctions against countries that continue trading with Iran. Entities in China, Hong Kong, the UK, Ukraine, Syria, France, Malaysia, Singapore, and several other countries are affected.

The major obstacle remains the closed Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants to maintain control over shipping lanes within its territorial waters and those of Oman, while the US wants a return to the pre-war order where all ships pass freely. Although President Trump has declared that all mines have been cleared, experts warn that some may remain. The US also continues a naval blockade of Iran's ports around the strait, severely damaging Tehran's oil exports.

Signs diplomacy is working?

Maybe. The breakthrough in talks between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz is seen by some experts as a sign Tehran is willing to engage in dialogue. Reuters reported that the US will begin returning evacuated diplomatic staff to Middle East missions as early as next week. Previously, the US withdrew personnel from Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Iraq after Washington and Israel struck Iran in late February, and temporarily closed embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after they were shelled.

According to US media, missions in Jordan, Israel, and Oman will be fully restored, while diplomatic posts in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Lebanon will operate at 85% capacity; Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain at 75%. Analysts suggest this decision indicates Washington believes the war will not escalate militarily, despite the collapse of direct talks.

Contradictory rhetoric

However, statements from both sides contradict the new diplomatic moves. President Trump told Al Jazeera on August 26 that he is “in no hurry” to resume negotiations with Iran and believes economic and military actions will prove effective. Iran has rejected and condemned the new sanctions. In a letter to the United Nations, Foreign Minister Araghchi called them “state and economic terrorism,” urging member states not to implement them.

Senior Iranian military officials continue to issue hardline statements. The new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Rezaei, is reported to have told the Pakistani general that Iran “does not trust the US.” Meanwhile, President Pezeshkian has struck a more moderate tone. Last week, he called for negotiations from a position of strength, saying: “It is better to end the war now while we are in a position of power and dignity.” However, the Iranian president's authority is limited as he is subordinate to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardliners, especially in the military, accuse his government of conceding to the US when it signed a memorandum of understanding in June, though the president has denied the criticism.

Implications of new diplomacy

There is no confirmation that the US is directly involved in the flurry of diplomatic activity this week. Some analysts speculate that Washington's increased economic pressure may be aimed at forcing Iran back to the negotiating table. Ali Vaez, an expert at the International Crisis Group, believes Washington wants to inflict a “financial disaster” on Iran through a military blockade combined with sanctions on an already weakened economy.

“The Islamic Republic has faced all of these before, though rarely simultaneously and at a time when challenges were already as acute as they are now. The question is whether this new chapter in the economic pressure game is designed to create a zero-sum campaign to bring down the regime, or to create leverage for a deal,” Vaez told journalists.