Skepticism Over Russian 'Diplomatic Feint' Amid Ukraine Battlefield Losses

While Kyiv endures relentless shelling, Muscovites have largely felt insulated from the war's toll, but that may be shifting. At least three people, including an Indian national, were killed in a drone attack on the Russian capital Sunday. Russia's Defence Ministry said it shot down over 1,000 drones in 24 hours.

The attacks came less than two weeks after President Vladimir Putin suggested the war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year and claiming hundreds of thousands of lives, could soon be "over." They also followed a Russian strike on Kyiv that killed 24 people.

Putin made his remarks hinting at an end to the conflict while speaking to reporters during the Victory Day parade on May 9. He even expressed readiness to meet his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a neutral country to sign a peace agreement, but added: "Victory is always ours and will be ours."

This is not the first time peace prospects have been floated. Before starting his second term at the White House in January last year, US President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end the war "within 24 hours," which clearly did not happen, though a three-day truce brokered by Trump was reached this month.

Simon Schlegel, Ukraine director at the Centre for Modern Liberalism in Berlin, told Al Jazeera: "Even the exchange of prisoners announced for this ceasefire didn't really happen, which at least I expected didn't happen." After weekend attacks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "The peace process is on pause."

The positions of Russia and Ukraine appear irreconcilable. Putin previously insisted there could be no peace until Ukraine relinquishes all territory Russia claims, including lands not under Russian control. Conversely, Zelenskyy says he is constitutionally prohibited from formally ceding any Ukrainian territory and that Russia should not be allowed to consider its invasion a success.

Although Russian forces are advancing slowly, they have not fully conquered the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Last year, sources close to the Russian government told the Moscow Times that the Kremlin was deliberately dragging out negotiations to consolidate battlefield advantages. "It is a war of attrition. And right now, Russia is not winning this war," Schlegel said.

Russians can adapt and overcome using superior manpower. "And that's why they want to buy time. Pretending diplomacy is a good way to do that," Schlegel explained. A new element introduced during the May holiday was Russia's desire to involve Europe in negotiations.

In early May, European Council President Antonio Costa said the EU was ready to negotiate with the Kremlin. Putin proposed former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as the EU representative, but EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas rejected the idea.

Alexey Nechaev of the Moscow-based Digoria Expert Club told Al Jazeera: "Moscow is generally open to negotiations. However, the problem is that the statements of European politicians about dialogue are accompanied by opposite actions: expanding military support to Ukraine, developing joint defense production, strengthening NATO infrastructure on Russia's borders."

While the EU's stance remains strongly pro-Ukraine, Schlegel noted this could change after upcoming elections, giving Moscow another reason to prolong talks. "If next year the National Front party wins in France, it will certainly not be better for European support for Ukraine," he said.

Yet time could also favor Ukraine as Kyiv intensifies attacks on Russian equipment, infrastructure and supply lines. Schlegel said: "We are getting closer to a situation where Ukraine can talk to Russia on its own terms, but it is not yet time for either side to collapse, and that will be the moment when real negotiations begin."

Ilya Budraitskis, a Russian social scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, believes the Russian leadership is unwilling to make serious concessions at this stage. "If no goals are achieved, he will appear weak and failed. He is ready to sacrifice tens of thousands more Russian soldiers," Budraitskis said. But he thinks a compromise could be reached if the interests of the Russian people and international security are separated from Putin's interests.

Anatoly, a 40-something Muscovite, expressed helplessness: "I want it to end and people to stop dying. All I hope is they will reach an agreement by the end of this year."