Russia Steps In as Pakistan–Afghanistan Mediator: Opportunities and Limits

On October 14, Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev held talks in Rawalpindi with Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir. At the same time, Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), flew to Kabul to meet Abdul Haq Wasiq, the head of Taliban intelligence.

Officially, Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan have released little beyond ceremonial statements about the meetings. But the context makes Moscow's effort clear: for the past year, Pakistan and Afghanistan have repeatedly clashed and issued public threats.

Last October, Qatar and Turkey brokered a ceasefire in Doha. In April this year, China hosted talks in Urumqi. Yet attacks inside Pakistani territory have continued, and Islamabad has kept carrying out airstrikes on Afghan territory in June, September and this month.

Against that backdrop, Russia appears to be emerging as a new intermediary. Zamir Kabulov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy for Afghanistan, told TASS earlier this month that Moscow is ready to mediate between Kabul and Islamabad if both sides request it.

Pakistan's ambassador to Russia, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, said in March that Islamabad had approached Moscow. The Taliban, however, has not publicly asked Russia to mediate, raising questions about how far and how effectively Moscow can push the two sides to negotiate when other mediators have already failed.

A complicated historical backdrop

Pakistan's military media wing, ISPR, said the Rawalpindi meeting discussed issues of "mutual interest and the regional security environment, with particular emphasis on enhancing bilateral security cooperation." The statement did not mention Afghanistan, and neither Russia nor the Taliban disclosed the substance of the intelligence chiefs' talks.

The Russian embassy in Kabul posted on X earlier this month that Moscow is "extremely concerned by the ongoing military confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which affects civilians, including children." The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said Pakistani airstrikes from September 30 to October 1 killed at least 10 civilians, most of them children.

For decades, Russia mediating between Pakistan and the Taliban would have been hard to imagine. Throughout the Cold War and after the Soviet collapse, Russia remained one of India's closest strategic and military partners — a country Pakistan has fought several wars against. In 1990s Afghanistan, Russia backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban.

But in recent years, Russia has significantly strengthened ties with both Pakistan and the Taliban. Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was in Moscow when Russian troops entered Ukraine in 2022. Last year, Russia became the first country in the world to formally recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

These shifts stem from Russia's desire to broaden its options in South Asia as India draws closer to the United States, and from a need to counter the rise of the ISIL branch in Afghanistan known as Islamic State Khorasan (ISKP). While the Taliban focuses on governing Afghanistan, ISKP has broader territorial ambitions and carried out an attack in Moscow in 2024 that killed nearly 150 people. The Taliban and ISKP are sworn enemies.

According to Taimur Khan, a research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), fighting between Pakistan and the Taliban destabilizes the region, and Moscow fears it could open the way for armed groups to spill into Central Asia.

"Mediation also helps Moscow preserve regional influence and avoid a vacuum that could draw outside powers back in," he told Al Jazeera.

Why mediation efforts are stuck

Qatar and Turkey brokered a ceasefire between Pakistan and the Taliban in Doha last October, but talks in Istanbul collapsed the following month and low-level clashes resumed. Islamabad also carried out airstrikes on Afghan territory. China hosted talks in Urumqi in April.

In mid-September, Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Taliban officials in Kabul and Kandahar before traveling to Islamabad. An attack then took place in Kohat on September 18, and Pakistan struck Afghanistan on September 24 and October 1.

"Other parties have so far achieved more concrete mediation results in this conflict," Eldaniz Gusseinov, a Central Asia expert and head of research at the geopolitical forecasting outlet Nightingale Int, told Al Jazeera.

Russia's own effort also stalled at a meeting in Moscow on October 5. Kabulov told TASS that the Afghan delegation objected to Afghanistan being mentioned so often in connection with "terrorism."

"For Pakistan, this is a genuine security issue, not just a matter of wording," Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan said at a weekly briefing on October 9.

Kabul-based security expert Tameem Bahiss said the objection reflects Kabul's long-standing position. "Accepting language that repeatedly links Afghanistan to terrorism could be seen as conceding the very allegations Kabul has always denied," he said.

The TTP problem

At the Moscow meeting, Pakistan's special envoy for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, said "terrorism" remains at the core of Afghanistan's problems. According to Afghan media, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said the issues between the two countries can be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.

Pakistan says the Pakistani Taliban and other armed groups shelter in Afghanistan. Kabul rejects the accusation, insisting it does not allow its territory to be used against other countries and that Pakistan's security problems are largely internal, according to Bahiss.

Moscow's public warnings focus on ISKP. "There is no clear public pressure from Russia on the Taliban over Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Moscow is unlikely to exert such pressure," Gusseinov said. TTP is the formal name of the Pakistani Taliban, the force behind many of the deadliest attacks Pakistan has suffered in recent years.

He argued that pressing the Taliban harder on Pakistan's behalf would undermine Moscow's standing as a neutral mediator and its partnership with the Taliban in the fight against ISKP.

"Russia's main concern is ISKP, and it appears satisfied with Taliban efforts to counter the group," Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based expert on armed groups and security dynamics in Afghanistan and Pakistan, told Al Jazeera.

What Russia has to leverage

Russia does, however, hold an advantage previous mediators lacked. In July 2025, it became the only country to recognize the Taliban government.

According to Taimur Khan, that could give Moscow a different source of influence. "The Taliban administration's interest in maintaining that recognition and expanding cooperation with Moscow could give Russia added leverage in pushing for action against TTP and other militant groups operating from Afghanistan," he said.

In May, the two sides signed an undisclosed technical-military agreement which, according to Kabulov, covers the repair and maintenance of equipment the Taliban holds, most of it Soviet- and Russian-made. Three days after the signing, Taliban Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob said Pakistan would soon no longer dare carry out airstrikes.

On June 9 and 10, Pakistani aircraft struck Kunar, Khost and Paktika provinces, killing 13 civilians, according to Afghan authorities.

"Russia has better access to the Taliban than any other major power, but its actual leverage is far more limited than is often assumed," Gusseinov said.

According to Sayed, senior Taliban leaders continued to visit Russia and India as the fighting escalated, seemingly signaling they can offset Pakistan's military advantage with new alignments.

"Though the military and political significance of these relationships remains unclear, the Taliban still presents such diplomatic developments to the Afghan public, especially supporters, as political achievements that reinforce their strong image," he said.

The SCO role

Pakistan holds the chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) for 2026-2027 and will host the 10-member bloc's summit in Islamabad next year.

The Taliban was not invited to this year's summit in Bishkek, where members called for an inclusive government in Kabul. On July 16, then-Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said Afghanistan first needs diplomatic relations with member states, when asked whether Pakistan was blocking Afghanistan's accession to the SCO. In September, Pakistan's ambassador to Moscow, Tirmizi, said he did not see full SCO membership for Afghanistan as a viable option under the current Taliban administration.

"The chairmanship strengthens the case for Moscow to invest in relations with Pakistan and to handle Afghanistan-related differences constructively," Taimur Khan said. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry did not respond to Al Jazeera's questions about whether the Taliban would be invited next year.

"I don't recall any instance of Kabul publicly asking Moscow to mediate between the two countries," Bahiss said. "However, Kabul's repeated calls for diplomacy and its relatively close ties with Russia suggest it would likely welcome Russian mediation if Moscow offered to take on the role."