Russia Intensifies Conscription Pressure Amid Fears of New Mobilization

Since June, multiple reports have emerged from Penza, about 625 kilometers southeast of Moscow, of illegal abductions in which men of conscription age have been forced into vehicles and taken to military enlistment offices. Social media videos show women weeping and pleading while men in civilian clothes attempt to drag young men away. These scenes resemble the forced conscription drives previously seen in Ukraine.

Some individuals are said to have been summoned to police stations on administrative pretexts, then beaten or threatened, and in some cases framed with drugs to coerce them into signing military contracts. Local authorities deny the allegations, stating that only draft dodgers were reminded of their obligations, and accuse residents of violating the law by sharing the videos.

Sasha, a 26-year-old resident of Orenburg, a city near the Kazakhstan border, said that despite holding a Category V medical exemption from service, he still feels unsafe. Since mid-2025, he and his girlfriend have been undergoing psychological treatment and taking antidepressants. He told Al Jazeera: "I don't go outside unless absolutely necessary, and I always carry pepper spray for self-defense."

Sasha also recounted that a friend of his was stopped by military police at night, told to present documents, and ordered to follow them. "My friend ran away," he said.

Mikhail Liberov, a representative of the anti-conscription movement, noted that recruiters often target vulnerable individuals such as drug users, alcoholics, people with mental health issues, those in debt, or migrants with poor Russian language skills. People over 35 may also be approached, and some are willing to take risks for money or the chance to become "heroes." Liberov also mentioned threats of imprisonment if contracts are not signed, which leads many to reluctantly agree.

Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes the incidents in Penza may be an attempt by local authorities to meet recruitment quotas, not necessarily a nationwide systematic effort.

Possibility of Full Mobilization

These incidents occur amid reports of a new mobilization wave, as Russia is expected to intensify attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure during winter. Liberov said: "I've accepted that mobilization will happen, unless something forces Putin to end the war."

In September 2022, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree for partial mobilization, prompting thousands of men to flee to neighboring countries. That mobilization ended after two months, and Russia shifted to recruiting prisoners and offering lucrative pay to boost troop numbers.

However, recruitment sources are dwindling. According to the independent outlet IStories, the number of voluntary military contract signings halved by late 2025, with most signees coming from disadvantaged backgrounds. The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates Russian losses since the start of the military campaign in early 2022 at nearly 450,000 personnel.

Meanwhile, the 2022 mobilization decree remains in effect, and Russia's offensive in Ukraine is stalling. Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory have widened the conflict, affecting the lives of Russian civilians.

Vladimir, a 35-year-old from Ulan-Ude, completed his military service and could therefore be called up. He said: "I have a negative attitude toward the war. I'm preparing for the possibility of being drafted. If things escalate, I'll request alternative civilian service; I don't want to leave the country."

Under the Russian constitution, citizens can apply for alternative civilian service if their beliefs or religion conflict with military duty. Around 2,000 people apply each year, and half are approved.

Earlier this summer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Kremlin was secretly preparing for full mobilization, and several independent Russian media outlets have echoed similar claims. In June, Andrey Gurulev, a lawmaker from the United Russia party, wrote on Telegram that there were discussions about the need for large-scale mobilization.

However, analyst Ignatov argues that Russia's biggest challenge currently is not quantity but the quality of soldiers, particularly those skilled in operating drones and modern warfare systems. He said: "If the war continues, we can certainly assume that mobilization could happen."