Russia Deploys More Nuclear Weapons to Belarus: Provocation or Pressure Tactic?

Kyiv, Ukraine – Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko participated for the first time this week in Russia's 'drills' using tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, the Kremlin announced. The joint three-day exercise, from May 19 to 21, involved hundreds of Russian missile launchers, fighter jets, warships and nuclear submarines, spanning from Eastern Europe to the Pacific.

'We are not threatening anyone,' Lukashenko said during the drills. 'But we have weapons and are ready by all means to defend the common homeland from Brest to Vladivostok.' Analysts, however, see significant risks for Minsk, which is still balancing its ties with both Moscow and the West.

The drill took place as Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart monitored the launch of a Yars hypersonic missile capable of carrying three independent nuclear warheads, which flew 5,750 kilometers from the Plesetsk launch site to the Kamchatka Peninsula in under 20 minutes. This was the first time Belarus directly participated in such strategic nuclear exercises.

'Something big is happening that will matter to international politics and the supply of nuclear weapons,' said researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin of the University of Bremen, Germany. He warned that events are unfolding abruptly, without a clear external cause.

Moscow has delivered to Minsk upgraded Su-25 fighter jets and Iskander-M ballistic missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers, alongside nuclear warheads reportedly stored at Asipovichi military base, less than 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This follows Lukashenko's 'referendum' on constitutional amendments in February 2022 that authorized the deployment of nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.

Responding in the West, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on May 20 that if Moscow uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the alliance will deliver a 'devastating' response. Rutte is expected to chair a NATO foreign ministers' summit in Helsingborg, Sweden, on May 22, coinciding with the end of the drills.

Observers say the exercise also sends a message to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on May 15 that Russia is dragging Belarus into 'new aggressive actions,' and on May 21 said the drill could be preparation for a fresh attack on northern Ukraine and Kyiv, after Russian forces made limited territorial gains in the east and south this year.

However, analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta research institute in Kyiv, believes the current Russian forces in Belarus are 'insufficient' for a new offensive. 'Attacking Ukraine only with Belarusian forces could end very badly for Lukashenko. For him, dragging Belarus into war is too great a risk.'

Meanwhile, some experts see the move as largely 'saber-rattling.' Belarusian political analyst Igar Tyskevych, based in Kyiv, said: 'I think it's saber-rattling. And even that is not with swords but with threats.' He argues that Zelenskyy is deliberately raising tensions to create a separate negotiation channel, and Lukashenko is signaling readiness to join that channel.

Evidence came on May 21 when Lukashenko declared: 'We will not be drawn into the war in Ukraine. There is no need for that, either civilian or military.' He offered to meet Zelenskyy anywhere in Ukraine or Belarus. The move comes as Belarus struggles economically under Western sanctions: Ukraine has stopped buying Belarusian goods and the EU has cut imports by more than two-thirds.

Minsk has recently sought to ease sanctions by resuming dialogue with Washington and joining the Peace Council of U.S. President Donald Trump, who eased some sanctions and pressured Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania to allow transit of Belarusian fertilizers. However, analyst Tyskevych predicts Ukraine will not resume full relations while Lukashenko remains in power.

Dr. Fesenko concluded: 'Unfortunately, there is still a risk of Belarus being drawn into Russia's war in Ukraine. But I think Lukashenko fears that. He will avoid such a scenario.'