What Role Does Russia Play in Mali and Sahel Security?

A few days after armed groups launched large-scale attacks on Malian army bases, the head of the military administration, Assimi Goita, said on Tuesday that the situation is "under control," with Russian security forces providing air support to prevent rebels from seizing key positions, including the presidential palace in the capital Bamako.

However, the security situation in this West African country remains unstable as the government struggles to regain control of towns and cities from Tuareg fighters and groups linked to al-Qaeda, who have declared a total blockade of Mali's capital.

The large-scale coordinated attack campaign on Saturday in several cities, including Bamako, shook the region. Mali's Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed, and several cities, including Kidal in the north, were seized by fighters. Mali's military administration said it killed more than 200 attackers.

Analysts are questioning the effectiveness of the military partnership between Bamako and Russia after reports that Russian forces withdrew from the northern city of Kidal. Mercenaries from the government-owned Africa Corps group fought alongside Malian troops in Kidal.

On Monday, Africa Corps confirmed its forces had withdrawn from Kidal but stated the decision was made jointly with the Malian government.

Conflict analysts and Malians on social media are now questioning the strength of Russia's defense support for Sahel countries, including military-led Burkina Faso and Niger, which have seen a rise in armed attacks in recent years.

Africa Corps, a unit under Russia's Defense Ministry that replaced the private Wagner group, was deployed in Mali after Goita requested French forces withdraw in 2022. France previously had more than 4,000 soldiers stationed in the region.

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023 amid worsening security after withdrawing from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which criticized the coups in the Sahel states.

Here is what we know about Russian fighters in Mali and the questions many are asking:

What happened to Russian fighters in the Mali attacks?

Saturday's attacks were conducted jointly by the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and the al-Qaeda-linked group Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM).

These groups attacked several cities: Kidal, Gao, Sevare, and Kati – locations with major military bases.

Mali has experienced armed violence since 2012. About 2,000 Russian fighters have been in the country since 2021, after thousands of French and UN soldiers withdrew.

Initially, the Russians were deployed under the Wagner paramilitary group; however, after the death of the group's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in 2023, the group was renamed Africa Corps and placed directly under Russia's Defense Ministry.

Many Wagner fighters remained in Africa Corps. Analysts say the main difference on the ground is the combat approach.

While Wagner fighters were more aggressive and willing to take risks, Africa Corps tends to be more defensive.

Russian fighters, the Malian army, and armed groups have all been accused of targeting civilians in what human rights organizations say could constitute war crimes.

In Saturday's attacks, Russian fighters were seen driving trucks out of captured Kidal, after reportedly negotiating their withdrawal through the mediation of neighboring Algeria.

Some Malian soldiers were disarmed and captured by fighters. The Malian army has not disclosed the number of prisoners.

What is the Russian government saying?

In a statement on Telegram on Monday, Africa Corps said the decision to withdraw was made jointly with Bamako.

"By a joint decision of the leadership of the Republic of Mali, units of the Africa Corps stationed and engaged in combat in the town of Kidal have withdrawn from the area along with Malian army servicemen."

The statement continued: "Wounded servicemen and heavy equipment were evacuated first. Personnel continue to carry out assigned combat missions. The situation in the Republic of Mali remains difficult."

Africa Corps also said it provided air support for the Malian army and helped prevent attacks on the presidential palace in Bamako. Russia's Defense Ministry also said about 12,000 fighters attacked on Saturday and said, without evidence, that they were trained by Ukrainian and European mercenaries.

The Malian army has not commented on the claim that the Russian withdrawal was a joint decision.

The governor of the Kidal region had warned Russian mercenaries three days before the attack, but "they did nothing," French outlet RFI reported, citing a senior Malian official. Another official added that Africa Corps may have negotiated its withdrawal in advance.

How has the attack affected Russia's standing in the Sahel?

When the French began leaving in 2021, Russia portrayed itself as a decolonial liberation force in the Sahel as mercenaries arrived in the region.

Analysts say Moscow has long tried to use Wagner, and later Africa Corps, as a tool to influence African governments. Russian fighters have long been present in the Central African Republic, and reportedly in Libya and Sudan.

In Mali's Sahel neighbors Niger and Burkina Faso, where armed violence by groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL has spread, Africa Corps members are present at lower levels and play more of an oversight role.

There are about 100 Russian soldiers in Niger and between 100 and 300 in Burkina Faso.

Wagner achieved mixed results in Mali, however, its mercenaries are credited with helping push back fighters and establishing government control over the Tuareg stronghold of Kidal in 2023.

However, Saturday's bold attacks, the seizure of Kidal, and the death of Defense Minister Camara – who helped build the partnership with Russia – have dealt a major blow to Russia's campaign in the Sahel, analysts say.

Military leader Goita appeared for the first time since the attacks in a video on Tuesday after speculation about his own health. He did not mention Russian fighters but challenged: "Security measures have been strengthened… and security operations are ongoing."

"Africa Corps has really lost credibility," said Ulf Laessing, head of the West Africa program at the Bamako-based Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung think tank, told Al Jazeera.

"They did not resist on Saturday and left Kidal, a highly symbolic Tuareg stronghold… they left behind a lot of equipment, including a drone station. This gives the impression that they were not really interested – but they may have been outnumbered."

The remaining Malian soldiers and civilian officials are reportedly leaving Kidal for Gao, the largest city in the north.

It remains unclear which positions the Russians will try to defend, as JNIM has declared a blockade of Bamako. Russia's Defense Ministry says operations against armed groups are ongoing, and has released videos that appear to show Africa Corps targeting fighter positions.

However, that has not dispelled doubts in many people's minds about Russia's effectiveness in the region.

"Russia will have difficulty attracting new clients for Africa Corps because they didn't fulfill their mission – that's reputational damage, what happened," Laessing said.