Netanyahu Open to Unilateral Strike on Iran?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing a crucial election later this year, has hinted he might consider unilateral action to prolong the costly war with Iran, even as Washington and Tehran seem on the verge of a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In a statement, Netanyahu cited Iran's Revolutionary Guard commander Ahmad Vahidi as saying Iran intends to continue developing nuclear weapons, though no official announcement from Vahidi has been made by the Iranian government or state media. Netanyahu still sees this as an opportunity to once again describe Iran's nuclear threat as an existential one.

“As Prime Minister of Israel, I am determined to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said at a ceremony in Jerusalem. He described the U.S. as “Israel's greatest ally,” but also added that he is ready to do “whatever is necessary” to ensure Israel's security.

Since the initial ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran in April, Israel has only officially struck Iran once, even after that ceasefire collapsed and the two sides resumed fighting in the war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. However, observers, including U.S. President Donald Trump, believe Netanyahu wants to keep the U.S. engaged in the war against Iran, which began in late February with a joint U.S.-Israeli strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Referring to reports that Netanyahu plans to bring new intelligence to Washington accusing Iran of stockpiling uranium at the Pickaxe Mountain facility near Natanz, Trump told reporters: “I don't need Bibi to tell me that. Bibi tells me that because he wants me to stay involved.” Trump then criticized more sharply: “Why doesn't he tell me directly? Why announce to the whole world?”

Controversial Strategy

With the U.S. and Israel so far unable to topple Iran's government or force concessions on the Strait of Hormuz, many analysts argue the war has failed. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed much of the world economy, raised global oil prices, and shortages of liquefied gas, fertilizers, sulfur, and petrochemical feedstocks threaten international supply chains.

“The war against Iran is a strategic disaster,” said Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security expert at King's College London. “No initial goals were achieved... Trump is desperately looking for a way out, almost at any cost. He only cares about reopening the strait.” However, in Israel, the focus is less on the world economy and more on the danger from Iran and its allied groups in the region.

Netanyahu has always pursued a hawkish stance toward Iran, the power he has repeatedly claimed is on the verge of crossing the nuclear threshold. He is also said to be one of the strong voices pushing Trump to withdraw from the 2018 nuclear deal. According to Kobi Michael, a senior research fellow at Israel's Misgav Institute for National Security, Israel's strategy is clear: Iran is still close to achieving nuclear capability and continues producing ballistic missiles, supplying proxy forces. Michael calls the current war a failure but believes Israel is ready to fight alone if necessary: “Israel can strike directly at the head of the octopus threatening global civilization and do it alone if needed.”

Unimaginable

However, while some in Israel believe in the capability of a unilateral strike on Iran despite U.S. wishes, others are cautious, suggesting Netanyahu's statements may be rhetoric before an election, as he faces a prolonged corruption trial that could threaten his legacy and personal freedom.

Relations with the U.S. are crucial to Israeli voters, but the Netanyahu-Trump relationship appears cooler than usual. Beyond tensions over Gaza, there are reports of strains due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon threatening to derail U.S.-Iran negotiations. However, these strikes are far from the unilateral attack on Iran that Netanyahu hinted at.

“Israel launching a unilateral action against Iran is unimaginable,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. diplomat. “That could only happen if Iran or Hezbollah attacked Israel directly, but saying Israel would attack Iran now when U.S. negotiations are near conclusion is impossible.” The alliance is entering a unique phase, with the U.S. never having cooperated militarily so closely with an ally since its relationship with Britain in World War II, yet diplomatic ties are rarely so strained.

“Trump's leaked crude criticism of Netanyahu; direct negotiations with Hamas over Gaza; lifting sanctions on Syria despite Israel's objections; and negotiating with Iran without Israel's participation all show the relationship is changing,” Miller said. “What that might mean for future U.S. military support for Israel, including defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, research and development, and diplomatic support at international forums, remains to be seen.” He added: “Netanyahu played a big role in how this war started. He will not have a role in how it moves to the next phase.”