Is Netanyahu really defying Trump with strikes on Iran?

The latest escalation between Israel and Iran has laid bare what many observers describe as the biggest rift yet in the relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, highlighting increasingly divergent interests between the two leaders.

The pair once seemed politically inseparable, with Netanyahu calling Trump "the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House." Trump reciprocated with praise. During a 2025 appearance in Israel, he joked: "He's not easy — not the easiest guy to deal with — but that's what makes him great."

But Trump is no longer joking. Last week, he reportedly called Netanyahu a "fucking idiot" during a phone call, accusing him of undermining U.S. diplomacy and warning that Israel's military escalation risked wrecking peace talks with Iran.

Tensions boiled over when Iran fired a barrage of missiles into northern Israel on Sunday, following an Israeli airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on June 7 — despite assurances from the U.S. just days earlier that this would not happen. The missile attack, Iran's first since a fragile Pakistan-mediated ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran two months ago, threatens to unravel months of negotiations.

"He won't have any choice," Trump told the Financial Times when asked about Netanyahu's willingness to approve a peace deal with Iran. "I'm the one who decides. I decide everything. He doesn't get to decide anything."

Iran and Israel have since halted further attacks on each other. But the confrontation has left Netanyahu politically cornered, caught between Washington's pressure to de-escalate and demands from far-right ministers in his government urging him to continue the war with Iran and Lebanon, even without U.S. backing. Analysts say this is a position Israel cannot sustain for long.

What is the core of the U.S.-Israel disagreement?

Ultimately, according to observers, both leaders are driven by their own political interests, which are on a collision course. In the U.S., the war with Iran is deeply unpopular, so Trump needs a deal with Iran to end the conflict. Conversely, Netanyahu can reap domestic political benefits if the war continues.

Indeed, as soon as Trump and Netanyahu jointly launched missile strikes on Iran in late February, their goals began to diverge. Israeli leaders believed the conflict could deliver a swift victory, potentially weakening or even toppling the Iranian government while destroying its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

But Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, argues that every assumption underpinning the campaign quickly collapsed. "The war did not go the way they wanted," he told Al Jazeera. "The biggest failure was assuming it would be quick and good and would achieve objectives. They thought it would bring regime change and through that, the nuclear and ballistic missile programs would end. Clearly, that was a complete failure."

The conflict also created economic consequences threatening Trump's domestic political interests. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in peacetime, global energy markets wobbled and oil prices surged.

Mekelberg said Washington appeared unprepared for a scenario many analysts had long warned was inevitable. "The U.S. does not seem to have thought strategically about how to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. It shows a lack of strategic thinking within this administration."

With fuel prices soaring and Democrats targeting gains in November's midterm elections, Trump has strong incentives to reach a quick deal and little appetite for a protracted Middle East crisis while preparing to host the World Cup.

Ultimately, despite the long-standing Israel-U.S. relationship, the Trump-Netanyahu bond is fundamentally transactional, Mekelberg said. "Trump is an egoist and a narcissist. It's a transactional relationship. It depends on how good the deal is, and when it's not in your favor — as we see with Trump, this is his method. 'I am your friend' until it no longer serves his interests."

How much leverage does Trump have?

As Israel grows increasingly isolated internationally over its actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and across the region, the U.S. remains its most important diplomatic protector, primary military supplier, and financial backer. This has become even more critical as traditional European allies distance themselves from Netanyahu's government.

Washington provides Israel at least $3.8 billion annually under a 10-year military aid agreement from 2019 to 2028. The package includes $3.3 billion through the Foreign Military Financing program and an additional $500 million for joint missile defense programs.

A recent Al Jazeera investigation found that 42% of weapons entering Israel originate from the U.S.

Gideon Levy, an Israeli journalist and author, told Al Jazeera that dependence on the U.S. leaves Netanyahu with little room to maneuver. "Israel is in no position to say no to Donald Trump, and Netanyahu is in no position to say no," Levy said. "Israel's dependence on the U.S. has now reached an unprecedented stage, and Israel cannot face off against Iran without the U.S. The reality on the ground is that whatever Trump tells Netanyahu to do, he will have to do exactly as Trump said."

So, where does Netanyahu stand?

Trump's push for a ceasefire clashes with Netanyahu's domestic ambitions. The war with Iran has proven popular in Israel, where public support for military action remains overwhelming.

Levy noted that polls show support for the strike on Iran at about 93%. "Traditionally in Israel, you can easily achieve consensus for a huge majority by launching another war, more than any diplomatic deal," Levy said.

With elections expected before the end of October, some analysts argue that continued confrontation serves Netanyahu's political interests. The problem is that Washington is increasingly committed to pursuing a diplomatic solution with Tehran.

U.S.-Iran negotiations are underway indirectly, through Pakistani mediation, but without Israel's involvement. Reports suggest any future deal would leave the Iranian government intact while allowing a limited but ongoing nuclear program. Tehran is also said to have demanded any agreement prevent Israel from launching future military campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

"Netanyahu is in a certain deadlock," Levy said. "His lifelong project is Iran and the belief that Iran can be defeated by force. This has been proven wrong in the last two rounds of confrontation with Iran."

A U.S.-Iran deal barring Israel from further military action in Lebanon risks undermining Israel's carefully cultivated image of military dominance, while deepening rifts within Netanyahu's coalition. Those tensions are already surfacing in Israeli politics. While Netanyahu reportedly urged ministers to avoid open confrontation with Washington, his own defense minister said Israel's military objectives would continue regardless of Trump's comments.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — whose party Netanyahu relies on to stay in power — recently warned Israel must draw clear lines with Washington. "We need to make clear to Trump that we have red lines, and if we are attacked from Lebanon or Iran, that is a red line, and we must respond," he said.

The conflict also provides a distraction from Netanyahu's corruption trial as it enters its sixth year. And with an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant hanging over his head for Israel's actions in Gaza, losing power could expose him to unprecedented legal trouble if he fails to be reelected. Analysts suggest holding onto office may be the prime minister's primary military objective, leaving Netanyahu increasingly walking a tightrope.

Is this a real split or just political theater?

Many analysts doubt the apparent rift between Israel and the U.S. represents any meaningful shift in bilateral relations. Phyllis Bennis, a fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., and international advisor to the activist group Jewish Voice for Peace, argues that Trump's criticisms have not been backed by action.

"Words could be significant if accompanied by actions," she told Al Jazeera. "What we see now is a set of words — 'You better be careful; you'll find yourself acting alone' — not backed up by actions."

Bennis noted that Washington continues to provide billions in military aid, shield Israel from accountability at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and ICC, and keep weapons flowing. She compared Trump's approach to that of former U.S. President Joe Biden in the early stages of Israel's Gaza war. "Leaders would say, 'Please don't kill too many Palestinians,'" Bennis said, "while continuing to provide weapons and funding… Words don't mean much."