NATO Unveils New War Plan to Counter Russia: 'Block, Weaken, Collapse'

General Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), has unveiled a new war plan to counter the risk of a Russian attack on NATO members, drawing on lessons from the battlefield in Ukraine.

Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum on October 12 about what NATO calls its "victory theory," he said the plan rests on three strategies to deter an invasion in the first place: "block, weaken and collapse."

The announcement comes as European intelligence agencies step up warnings about the threat from Russia, including both the possibility of conventional military conflict and "hybrid warfare" — which can range from cyberattacks to interference with undersea cables.

Grynkewich said: "What I want to do is reassure one billion citizens of the alliance that we have the situation under control. We know what we need to do and how we will do it."

The new plan, however, was announced at a time when NATO itself appears divided over how to deal with Russia, following a series of recent overtures by US President Donald Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin, including the latest controversial proposal for Russia to release diesel reserves onto the global market despite sanctions targeting Russian oil.

What does NATO's new plan involve?

General Grynkewich told the Warsaw Security Forum that NATO does not consider a military confrontation with Russia "imminent or inevitable," but the alliance will still be ready for that scenario.

"Implementing the victory theory I described today will require me to issue orders that I hope I will never have to give," he said. "But let me be clear: if war comes, we will block, we will weaken any attack, and if the attack does not stop, we will collapse the forces aggressing against us."

According to him, the "block, weaken and collapse" strategy aims to deter an attack rather than seize enemy territory.

Drawing directly on lessons from the battlefield in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East, Grynkewich said the plan relies on the use of precision weapons at a "reasonable cost-to-mass ratio," such as drones and other automated systems.

Under the plan, alliance forces would "block" an attack at the border to halt the adversary's advance on the battlefield, then "weaken" the attack by striking advancing troops from the air, sea and land. Finally, they would target the adversary to "collapse" it by hitting logistics chains and command networks.

"If necessary, we will collapse the enemy's forces and the operational system arrayed against us," he said. "Enemy formations will be cut off from supplies. Enemy commanders will be unable to control their forces. Enemy forces and supporting capabilities will be neutralized and destroyed."

Is the threat from Russia in Europe growing?

Germany's foreign intelligence chief, Martin Jaeger, warned last week that his country risks being drawn into a "violent conflict" with Russia, arguing that Moscow increasingly sees Berlin as a main adversary.

He cited a drone attack targeting a Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig airport in August as an example of the escalating threat. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt also warned of a Russia-linked "shadow war," including sabotage, cyberattacks and other covert operations.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron warned last month that the hybrid threat from Russia to France and other European countries had increased in recent weeks, and called for preparations of plans to protect critical infrastructure.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he received confirmation as soon as he took office that Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum, though he did not release details of the evidence. Last week he traveled to Berlin to meet German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, partly to discuss plans to counter Russian hybrid warfare.

Late last month, Russia issued a nuclear warning to NATO, saying it was ready to use its arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if the alliance sought to isolate Kaliningrad — Russia's exclave bordering Poland and Lithuania.

In July, Romania's Defense Ministry said it had recorded 33 instances of Russian drones entering its airspace since Russia launched its full-scale military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022. Eighteen of the incursions occurred this year, and Romanian F-16 fighters have shot down three drones during the year.

Poland has also accused Russian intelligence of being behind the arson attack on a Starlink satellite internet station in Wola Krobowska last month. Warsaw described the incident as part of a Russian hybrid warfare campaign against countries supporting Ukraine.

Norway has issued similar warnings. Beate Gangas, head of the country's Police Security Service, said this week that Europe faces its most serious security situation since World War II, and expressed concern about suspected Russian sabotage and covert operations across the continent.

What has Russia said?

In August, Russia warned that Britain could face "consequences" for supplying drones to Ukraine, which are used in long-range strikes on Russian territory.

"London's actions will certainly bring consequences that they will pay for," the Russian Embassy in London said in a statement on August 17. "The deeper their involvement in the conflict and the more they support Kyiv's terrorist machine, the higher the price they will pay."

Still, President Vladimir Putin said last month that Russia is not preparing for "any kind" of conflict with Europe. He added that Russia has "no real motive" to escalate tensions and criticized European countries that take the opposite view.

"Many people in Europe talk about predicting an attack from Russia and therefore argue they must prepare themselves for conflict, for a war with Russia," Putin told reporters in St Petersburg.

"I want to emphasize once again: we are not preparing for any kind of conflict with Europe," he insisted.

Putin said Russia is weighing its position on whether to resume peace talks with Ukraine, after recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia, particularly on energy infrastructure.

"As for proposals to resume talks, yes, all of them are being considered and all are possible. But after everything they have done, we will carefully consider the steps needed to respond," Putin said.

Is NATO united?

Since taking office as US president, Trump has repeatedly criticized other NATO members for not carrying enough of the financial burden for defense. He has also been frustrated by NATO members' general refusal to join the US-Israel war against Iran.

According to analysts, this has raised concerns that Trump cannot be relied upon to provide support if needed within the NATO alliance.

In August, after the Russian consulate in London warned of "consequences" for Britain over supplying long-range drones to Ukraine, former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Fedorov told the BBC that this could include the possibility of strikes. He said many military experts now advising the Kremlin are "convinced" that NATO would not respond forcefully if Russia attacked Britain. "Trump will not allow NATO to retaliate," he said.

The alliance faces deepening divisions over Russia, as Trump pursues outreach to Moscow while European governments insist Russia must continue to face pressure if the war in Ukraine is to end.

Last month, Washington invited Putin to attend the G20 summit in December in Miami, a move seen as potentially ending Moscow's diplomatic isolation since Russia launched its full-scale military campaign in Ukraine in 2022.

The European Union responded that Russia remains a G20 member but said it would continue to condemn the invasion regardless of whether Putin attends.

The division deepened last week when Trump announced a deal allowing Russian diesel to be exported to the US and global markets, temporarily easing sanctions on Russian fuel. His administration said the move could help lower energy prices and encourage Putin to return to peace talks.

Critics warned the move would generate revenue for Russia while undermining Western efforts to curb its war effort.

Meanwhile, Trump has also stepped up criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suggesting Ukraine should elect a new leader willing to reach a deal with Russia. Zelenskyy called Trump's diesel deal with Putin "unfair and dishonest," arguing it benefits Russia.

EU foreign ministers also affirmed that Europe's sanctions on Russia will remain in place despite the deal between Washington and Moscow.

On Sunday, Trump declared on Truth Social that an "energy ceasefire" had been established between Russia and Ukraine, under which the two sides would not target each other's energy facilities with long-range strikes. However, Zelenskyy said such a deal was "news to me" — though he also said Ukraine would respect a ceasefire if Moscow does the same. Despite that, Russia — which has also not confirmed agreeing to an energy ceasefire — continued attacking Ukrainian facilities on Monday, according to Ukrainian officials.