Five Years of Taliban Rule: How Are They Handling Armed Opposition?

August 15 marks five years since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan. Throughout this period, armed opposition has not been confined to a single front or leader; instead, various groups have emerged, claiming responsibility for attacks against government forces in multiple provinces.

The United Nations reports that anti-government armed groups are still active, but they cannot significantly threaten the Taliban's territorial control and do not hold any fixed geographic areas.

Renewed Clashes

The issue has become particularly notable following recent clashes in Badakhshan province, where the Afghanistan Freedom Front engaged government forces in the Zebak district. This stands out from the opposition's usual pattern, as the fighting lasted several days before subsiding.

The National Resistance Front was the first major armed force to emerge after Kabul fell. Hundreds of soldiers and former government security members gathered in Panjshir province to form an opposition force, but after a major Taliban offensive, the fighting shifted to limited operations and sporadic skirmishes.

Security researcher Karim Amini said that former Afghan government political and military figures tried to establish armed fronts after the U.S. withdrawal to pressure the Taliban, but failed to turn these projects into effective forces on the ground. The main reason is that most of these groups were established outside Afghanistan, limiting their ability to establish a presence and build a social base inside the country. Additionally, choosing armed confrontation with the Taliban has met with fatigue from an Afghan society weary of decades of war.

Rise of Opposition Groups

Alongside the National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, a host of other groups have appeared under various names, such as the Army of the Homeland, the Freedom and Justice Movement, the United Front of Afghanistan, the Green Movement, the National Independence Front, the Republican Front, the Democratic People's Front, the National Guard Movement, the National Revolutionary Front of Afghanistan, the Freedom and Democracy Front, and the National Liberation Front...

However, claiming responsibility does not necessarily mean the group carried out the attack. There have been cases where multiple organizations claimed the same incident, or where groups based outside Afghanistan claimed attacks carried out by other factions. Digital media expert Mohammad Nouri said social media has become a second battlefield, where armed groups need to prove their existence online as well as on the ground.

Security research expert Abdul Karim Khan assesses the fighting in Zebak as a test of the opposition's ability to shift from hit-and-run attacks to prolonged confrontations, but it cannot yet be considered a strategic change. "The real measure is not controlling a position for a few hours or days, but the ability to hold that position, secure supply lines, expand fighter networks, and force the Taliban to adjust military deployments sustainably," Khan said.

Taliban's Response

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid downplayed the activities of armed opposition groups, saying their presence is mainly online rather than on the ground. He asserted that the administration controls all of Afghanistan's territory and is capable of dealing with any insurgent organization. According to Mujahid, Afghan society is tired of war and will not allow what he called "warlords" to return to the political scene.

The Real Challenge

Rafiullah Kakar, an expert on armed movements, argues that the opposition does not necessarily need to control large areas from the outset to pressure the Taliban, but only needs to sustain operations that force the movement to continually allocate troops and resources. However, a war of attrition will not bring political change if the opposition fails to build a social base and offer a convincing political project.

Writer and political analyst Khalid Ahmadi believes the main issue is that armed opposition groups exaggerate their operational capabilities, but they have yet to present a unified vision for a post-Taliban era. Conversely, the Taliban maintains control but faces challenges regarding political legitimacy and foreign relations.

The increase in the number of armed fronts does not necessarily mean Afghanistan is heading toward a new civil war, but it shows that the conflict did not end with the collapse of the previous government. The opposition's current tactic is to use small units operating in various areas to exhaust the Taliban rather than capture cities, while the Taliban seeks to maintain security control and prevent these groups from growing into a widespread insurgency.