US and Iran: Closer to War or Closer to a Deal?
Sarah Shamim
Despite a temporary ceasefire and ongoing negotiations, the US and Iran have continued to trade attacks and warnings, raising fears of a broader conflict. Recent strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, and UAE facilities, as well as Iranian responses, have heightened tensions. Meanwhile, both sides have made contradictory signals, hinting at both a possible deal and a readiness to resume full-scale war.
Since a temporary ceasefire brokered by Pakistan was announced in April, the US and Iran have continued exchanging peace proposals and counterproposals. However, leaders from both sides have repeatedly stated they are also ready to use force if necessary, fueling concerns about a renewed risk of war.
On June 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any US bases in the region used to carry out acts of aggression against Iran would become legitimate targets. The warning came after a series of attacks targeting Iranian and American assets and infrastructure in Gulf countries over recent weeks. Iran's Navy also reported firing warning rockets and drones at a US warship in the Gulf of Oman, accusing the US Navy of harassing maritime traffic and seizing commercial vessels and oil tankers amid a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Recent Clashes Escalate
According to Kuwait's KUNA news agency, on June 4, Iranian missiles and drones struck Kuwait International Airport, causing casualties, damaging infrastructure, and forcing flights to be halted or diverted. India's Foreign Ministry confirmed one Indian national was killed and several others injured. US Central Command (CENTCOM) assessed that two missiles aimed at Kuwait fell short or broke apart, with some ballistic missiles missing their targets.
Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a US helicopter in a 'regional country' (understood to be Kuwait). Tasnim also said the IRGC fired missiles and drones at an airbase and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. CENTCOM stated that missiles aimed at Bahrain were intercepted, with no US personnel or assets damaged.
These attacks followed US strikes on Iranian radar and drone stations at Goruk and Qeshm Island, as well as the destruction of an Iranian drone targeting a civilian vessel. Tehran reported that US forces damaged an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media said the IRGC navy launched retaliatory missiles at a vessel named 'Panaya'.
Earlier, on May 17, Abu Dhabi authorities said a drone attack caused a fire at an external generator in the outer perimeter of the Barakah nuclear power plant, with no casualties and radiation levels remaining normal. In early May, the UAE also accused Iran of launching 'a salvo' of missiles and drones at the port of Fujairah, injuring three Indian nationals and causing a fire at an oil refinery.
When Has the US Hinted at a Near Deal?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress on June 3: 'The war is over,' and affirmed that the US would agree to ease sanctions if Iran abandons its nuclear program. Rubio said Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive and increasingly engaged in negotiations with Washington.
On May 6, US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office: 'They want a deal. We've had very good negotiations over the last 24 hours, and it's very possible we will get a deal.'
When Has Iran Hinted at a Near Deal?
On June 6, the interior ministers of Pakistan and Iran stressed the need for consistent diplomatic efforts for lasting regional peace. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said a Pakistani general's visit to Tehran in May did not mean 'a turning point or decisive situation had been reached'.
On May 28, media reported that the US and Iran had reached a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreeing to extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and begin talks for a permanent end to the war. However, Washington and Tehran did not confirm this, and clashes continued.
When Has the US Hinted at Renewing Conflict?
The Wall Street Journal cited US sources saying Trump told aides he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if US soldiers were killed in attacks. US Vice President JD Vance stated on May 19: 'We will have no deal that allows Iran to have a nuclear weapon. The President is willing and able to act if needed.' On May 17, Trump wrote on Truth Social: 'For Iran, the clock is ticking, and they should act FAST, or there will be nothing left.'
When Has Iran Hinted at Renewing Conflict?
Foreign Minister Araghchi said: 'Standing up to the world's biggest power, armed with nuclear weapons, for 40 days is no joke. We warn regional countries that US bases used for any aggression against Iran are legitimate targets.' Iran's lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament that Tehran could abandon talks with the US and shift to confrontation if Israel continues to attack Lebanon.
