US–Russia Re-Engagement: A Thaw or a Ruse?

The administration of US President Donald Trump is stepping up high-level contacts with Russian officials, even as fighting in Ukraine continues and US-backed peace efforts remain stalled.

The latest signs include CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow last week and Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov's surprise attendance at the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers' meeting hosted by the United States in North Carolina on Monday (September 1, US time).

However, analysts caution that these contacts do not necessarily signal a full restoration of US–Russia relations. Washington maintains sanctions on Moscow over its military campaign in Ukraine, while major differences over territorial issues remain unresolved.

Recent US–Russia diplomatic contacts

Ratcliffe's trip to Moscow stands out as particularly notable. He held talks with Russian intelligence officials there. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said President Vladimir Putin was briefed on the discussions but did not meet Ratcliffe directly.

President Trump described the visit as “semi-routine” and linked to efforts to end the war in Ukraine. US media reported that Ratcliffe also raised concerns about the possibility of Russia attacking NATO member states and Moscow's ties with Tehran.

After the visit, Trump said the CIA director had a “good talk” with Putin and asserted that “Russia will not attack NATO territory.” Trump had previously vowed to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office for a second term in January 2025, but no deal has been reached so far.

In a related development, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov unexpectedly appeared at the G20 meeting in North Carolina—the first such attendance since Russia launched its full-scale military campaign in Ukraine in 2022. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Siluanov on the sidelines of the conference. According to Reuters, Bessent stressed that no financial deals or sanctions relief would be offered to Russia until the war ends.

Negotiation outlook: Russia–Ukraine

The prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough remains fragile, as neither side shows willingness to concede territory. US-mediated talks earlier this year collapsed largely over Moscow's territorial demands. Russia seeks Ukraine's cession of territories in the east, while Kyiv refuses to give up any land it currently controls.

Last week, Kyrylo Budanov, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States could take place “very soon.” On Monday (September 1), Zelenskyy said he had a “detailed and constructive” discussion with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about a possible visit to Ukraine and advancing the peace process.

Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues. Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly struck each other's energy infrastructure and engaged in fierce battles in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. On Tuesday (September 2), Russian airstrikes killed 12 people and wounded many others in Kyiv and its outskirts, marking the sixth consecutive day of intense attacks on the Ukrainian capital.

US–Russia relations: Improvement or alarm?

The restoration of high-level US–Russia contacts began early in Trump's second term. In February, Washington and Moscow agreed to resume senior military dialogue that had been suspended before Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.

According to Keir Giles, a expert on the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Chatham House think tank, evidence that “relations between Washington and Moscow are being normalised will add to the sense of alarm.” Giles told Al Jazeera: “The United States treating Russia as a partner rather than an adversary is fundamentally problematic for all countries directly threatened by Moscow—not just Ukraine, but also America's European allies.”

Some analysts also warn that closer ties with Trump could embolden Russia to act more aggressively against NATO. In August, after Moscow warned Britain of “consequences” over its supply of long-range missile components to Ukraine, former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Fedorov told the BBC that those “consequences” could include the possibility of an attack. Fedorov said many military experts advising the Kremlin believe NATO would not respond strongly if Russia struck Britain, because “Trump would not allow NATO to react.”

Dissenting views were also evident at the G20 meeting. Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski expressed displeasure at Moscow's presence on Monday, telling Reuters: “We don't trust Russia. They constantly lie, and you need to be really, really careful when discussing with them.”

EU Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said it was not the right time to “normalise” Russia's participation in G20 meetings. He said: “I think the European position is clear.”