As Brazil gears up for its presidential election in October, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stands accused of interfering to boost far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Pressure tactics reportedly include a 25% tariff on most Brazilian imports and designating the country's largest criminal gangs as foreign terrorist organizations.
Analysts draw parallels to the CIA's covert campaign in 1962, when Washington spent millions to undermine the leftist government of President João Goulart, paving the way for the 1964 military coup. Chico Rubens Paiva, grandson of the late congressman Rubens Paiva who investigated that intervention, says history appears to be repeating itself.
In this year's race, incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with polls showing a tight contest. Brazilian officials suspect the U.S. aims to weaken Lula, particularly through economic sanctions.
In July, Lula accused two U.S. officials of plotting to interfere in Brazil's election and had their visas denied. Washington subsequently revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador. Experts like political scientist Celso Rocha de Barros voice concern that U.S. interference is now more overt and larger in scale than during the Cold War.
The U.S. State Department denies the allegations, affirming respect for the Brazilian people and any government they freely choose. However, analysts argue the pressure campaign seeks to destabilize Lula's government, bolster right-wing allies across Latin America, and pave the way for pro-U.S. partners to take power.
Historian James N. Green says the strategic goal is to neutralize leftist forces in the region while consolidating U.S. influence over what is seen as its “backyard.” Allegations that the U.S. president interfered in Argentina's election last year have further fueled fears of a similar campaign targeting Brazil.
