Morocco: Ruling Coalition Fractures Ahead of Election Campaign

Morocco's parliamentary election is scheduled for September 23, but political tensions have escalated ahead of the official campaign opening on September 10. According to the Interior Ministry, within the first half-day of candidate registration on August 31, 702 candidate lists from 27 parties had already been submitted.

Approximately 15.8 million registered voters are eligible to cast ballots, while the country's population stands at 36.8 million according to the 2024 census. The High Planning Commission (HCP) estimates that about 25 million people are of voting age.

Ruling Coalition Fractures

The political competition is heating up early as parties finalize their candidate selections and position themselves for the decisive battle. Notably, the current ruling coalition partners—the National Rally of Independents (RNI), the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), and the Istiqlal Party—are openly clashing.

A leaked audio recording, purportedly of House Speaker Rachid Talbi Alami, a senior RNI figure, has revealed tensions between RNI and PAM over Budget Minister Fouzi Lekjaa. In the recording, a voice believed to be Talbi Alami criticizes Lekjaa without naming him directly, while warning against giving him the position of Minister of Economy and Finance in a future government.

The incident has drawn reactions from RNI President Mohamed Chouki, Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch, who defended internal discussions as part of political debate and insisted the focus should be on winning the election, not on pre-allocating cabinet posts. Lekjaa also dismissed any pre-election distribution of roles, stating that 'dividing the spoils before the hunt' is not his concern.

This episode raises questions about whether election results will determine the composition of the government or whether backroom calculations remain at play. It shows that parties are already preparing their post-election positions even as they remain partners in the current government.

Party Landscape

RNI secured the largest bloc in Parliament in 2021 with 102 seats, PAM won 87, and Istiqlal took 81. The three formed the ruling coalition after that election. The coalition can point to economic reforms, investment, and the expansion of social security as evidence of progress, while the opposition argues these measures have not been enough to ease the cost-of-living pressures on citizens.

The Justice and Development Party (PJD), which governed from 2011 to 2021 but suffered a heavy defeat in the 2021 election, now holds only 13 seats and aims to rebuild its influence. Under the leadership of Abdelilah Benkirane, it remains a vocal critic of the government on issues such as conflicts of interest, prices, employment, and public services.

Campaign Issues

The cost of living, employment, healthcare, and education are consistently top concerns for voters. Inflation has slowed compared to previous years, but prices have not fallen, leaving many households struggling with food, transportation, and other basic expenses.

The ruling parties will emphasize economic growth and social security expansion. The opposition contends these achievements have not translated into tangible improvements for families. Employment will be a major topic, especially for youth, as the government pledged to create at least 1 million net jobs between 2021 and 2026, yet by the end of 2025, only about 95,000 had been realized (according to Medias24 analysis), even as the government claims 850,000 non-agricultural jobs were created from 2021 to 2025.

Healthcare and education are also hot-button issues, with the opposition highlighting persistent deficiencies. The cost of Eid al-Adha and soaring meat prices could become political flashpoints. Last year, citizens were encouraged to forgo the ritual sheep sacrifice due to drought and a sharply reduced livestock population. This year, although sheep have returned, prices have surged, making them unaffordable for many families.

Ceuta Incident and Political Trust

The mass migration to Ceuta on July 30, which saw at least 72,000 people cross the border and resulted in 82 deaths on the Spanish side and 14 on the Moroccan side, has become a sensitive issue. By August 21, only 6 of the deceased had been identified. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said there was no evidence that Morocco organized the crossing, attributing it to criminal networks and misinformation. The PJD has called for a royal investigation committee into the incident, bringing it into the political debate.

Additionally, conflicts of interest between politicians and private businesses continue to erode voter trust. Politicians switching parties and coalition partners fighting over candidates and positions have left many skeptical about the political class's priorities.

Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in the 2021 election was about 50% of registered voters. Registration does not guarantee voting. Parties must persuade those who have lost faith to show up at the polls.

Social Media Shaping Campaigns

Social media is playing an increasingly important role. Parties and candidates reach voters through Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube in addition to traditional methods. Allegations and leaked audio recordings spread quickly and spark controversy. The Talbi Alami recording is a prime example. Social media also fueled the Ceuta crossing as many accounts urged people to head to the area, claiming the border was open.

The September 23 election will determine the composition of the new Parliament and subsequently shape the next government. The ruling parties urge voters to assess their track record, while the opposition argues the government has failed to meet its commitments. But what matters more is whether the parties can convince skeptical voters that the election will bring real change.