Strait of Hormuz traffic down 95%, reshaping global shipping trade

Six months after the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to cause one of the worst shipping disruptions in decades. Traffic through the 33-kilometre chokepoint has fallen from over 100 ships per day to just around five, stalling the flow of oil, gas and goods worldwide.

Around 80% of global trade volume is transported by sea at some point, making shipping the lifeblood of the world economy, according to UNCTAD, the United Nations trade and development agency.

Strategic Middle East chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical gateway for global energy trade. It is one of the Middle East's three key maritime passages, carrying more than a third of the world's seaborne crude oil and nearly a third of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined oil products.

Richard Matthews, director of research and consulting at Gibson Shipbrokers, a London-based maritime brokerage, told Al Jazeera: "This is probably the first time we have actually seen a major chokepoint squeezed." He explained that what sets Hormuz apart from other chokepoints is that "there is no alternative sea route. There are some pipelines, but there is no alternative, which is why it matters in terms of cargo volumes."

According to UNCTAD data, in the week before the Iran war began, crude oil flows through Hormuz accounted for approximately 38% of total global crude, LPG 29% and LNG 19%. Crude exports from the Gulf region have fallen by nearly half (47%) compared with pre-war levels, from about 17 million barrels per day in 2025 to around 9 million barrels per day as of August 2026. Analysts estimate that 5-7 million barrels of Gulf oil per day are disrupted, according to Reuters. Direct crude exports through the strait have dropped to an average of just 2.2 million barrels per day, according to Kpler, a data and analytics firm tracking global commodity markets.

From 100 ships a day to five

Before the war, around 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, more than half of them tankers carrying tens of millions of barrels of oil. That number collapsed within days of the US and Israel launching airstrikes against Iran on February 28. After Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the strait on March 2, traffic fell to an average of five ships per day and has remained at that level throughout the April ceasefire and the US-imposed blockade of Iranian ports.

A provisional agreement on June 17 lifted the daily average to 20 ships, still only a fifth of normal levels, before the US resumed its blockade on July 14 and traffic again fell to five ships a day. The strait is now effectively closed. From July 15 to August 23, an average of about five ships per day passed through, marking a fall of nearly 95% from pre-war traffic. The remaining vessels are mostly tankers operating under naval escort or with tracking systems turned off.

Before the war, Hormuz operated as a shared waterway, with ships using standard shipping lanes mainly through the centre of the strait, supported by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Currently, the few vessels passing through are using a temporary arrangement, with the strait divided into two separate routes after Iran and Oman agreed on temporary shipping lanes using their respective territorial waters to help ships pass. Iranian authorities stressed that ships must use the northern route, running along the coast near the islands of Larak and Qeshm, connecting directly to Iranian ports and terminals. However, in April, the US military imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports to prevent around 2 million barrels of Iranian oil per day from reaching the rest of the world.

Hardest-hit countries

Countries heavily dependent on Gulf oil, gas and fertilisers are facing higher prices, longer waits and the need to find alternative suppliers. Even where agreements have been reached to keep goods moving, shipping costs are being passed through supply chains.

The most dependent countries on Middle Eastern oil include Eritrea and Madagascar, each importing around 90% of their oil from the region, followed by Pakistan (78%), Japan (77%) and Kenya (77%).

The closure of Hormuz has redrawn global shipping routes, pushing traffic away from the Gulf towards the Red Sea and Southeast Asia, with Singapore and Malaysia emerging as energy transshipment hubs. For example, Russian fuel oil shipments to Singapore and Malaysia rose 2.5 times month-on-month in July, making the region an increasingly important centre for rerouted energy flows.

Kuwait saw the sharpest drop in daily port calls, down 86%, as its only sea route to open water passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Ukraine ranked second with a 69% decline, due to drone attacks on shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) fell 69%, from 78 daily port calls to 24. Qatar, Iraq and Bahrain also recorded similar declines of around 66-68%.

Saudi Arabia recorded a smaller decline — 15% compared with its neighbours — thanks to its pipeline network and access to Red Sea ports, which handle higher volumes of shipped oil even after Houthi forces declared a naval blockade on the kingdom on July 20.

Mr Matthews noted: "When the Middle East war broke out, we suddenly saw more shipowners willing to go into the Red Sea because there were fewer options for crew access. And the Houthi risk seemed to have diminished."

What next?

For those in the shipping industry, the crisis has surpassed many disruptions in recent years. Mr Matthews, who has worked in the industry since 2009 after the financial crisis, said even the COVID-19 pandemic was a different shock, with a more visible recovery path.

He explained: "We have gone from dealing with one conflict or black swan event every five years to perhaps dealing with four or five such events since 2020. Disrupting shipping with drones and other types of attacks is now easier than before. Ten years ago, the main threat to shipping was probably Somali pirates; now you have everything from Ukrainian drones attacking ships, Russian drones, a similar situation in Hormuz, and the Houthis easily targeting ships in the Bab al-Mandeb area."

For consumers, one of the most visible effects of the Hormuz crisis is oil prices rising about 20% from pre-war levels, recovering from highs of over $130 per barrel in April. However, some experts argue the increase has been relatively mild, and oil and shipping markets have shown adaptability and resilience.

Mr Matthews explained that before the war began, oil reserves and inventories had been built up strongly, creating a buffer against supply shocks. "Only now have we nearly burned through that buffer. So we are at a stage where the next six months could be volatile and much more significant for inventories if the situation does not change soon," he said.