Canadian visits to US drop 42% under second Trump term

Researchers at the University of Toronto developed a mobile data tracking tool and found that Canadian visits to major US metropolitan areas fell an average of 42% year-over-year — significantly higher than the 25% decline recorded by official border control figures.

The researchers said the drop reflects a trend of Canadians avoiding US cities under the second Trump administration. The decline was especially sharp in states such as New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont, as well as popular tourist destinations like Las Vegas, Walt Disney World in Florida, and winter ski resorts.

Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto and co-author of the report, said she was struck by the drop in Grand Rapids, Michigan — a city with strong economic ties to Ontario, Canada, in the automotive industry. 'Previously, there was a lot of cross-border travel for work, but since the US imposed tariffs on some Canadian goods, including cars, the number of visitors appears to have plummeted,' she said.

The tool's data tracked Canadian mobile devices moving to US metropolitan areas from April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2026. Compared to border control figures, the researchers explained that mobile data includes freight traffic — which is not counted in border control numbers — and can also track changes among Canadians who previously lived temporarily in the US and have left.

On the blog accompanying the tool, the researchers emphasized 'a pronounced decline in visits to major urban economies.' They wrote: 'High-tech and financial hubs like San Francisco and Houston appear to have seen a decrease not only in tourist visitors but also in business travelers, reflecting changes in travel habits driven by economic uncertainty on both sides of the border.'

According to data from the Canadian government, the number of return trips by Canadians from the US fell 25% in 2025, while trips to Canada by Americans also declined 7.5%.