Ethiopian Forces Retake Mekelle as Fears of Renewed Tigray Conflict Grow

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters from the Tigray Peace Force have taken control of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, reviving painful memories of the 2020-2022 war. Local residents fear the conflict will drag on, driving displacement and economic hardship.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) confirmed on Saturday that its forces had withdrawn from Mekelle, saying the regional administration would operate temporarily from another location. Government and allied forces entered the city the same day. A pro-government militia source, a humanitarian worker and a Mekelle resident confirmed to Reuters on Sunday that they were in control of the city.

The development comes less than four years after the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria Agreement, ending two years of devastating fighting.

Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, northwest Tigray, said the latest fighting had been particularly hard to follow.

"I am heartbroken to learn that Tigray has returned to full-scale war," he said in a phone interview with Al Jazeera. "We saw what the previous war did to our people, and now it feels like we are going through it all over again."

The 2020-2022 war is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and caused severe damage to infrastructure and livelihoods.

The African Union-mediated agreement, signed in Pretoria in November 2022, ended large-scale fighting, but key issues remain unresolved, including disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces.

In July, the TPLF declared that the Pretoria Agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected the accusation, saying it remained committed to the peace process while accusing the TPLF of undermining the deal.

Political tensions have been accompanied by rising military tensions, including reports of sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray. The two sides have also accused each other of troop movements and preparations for fresh fighting.

The seizure of Mekelle marks a major development in the new conflict, once again making the city the focal point of the fighting.

Fear spreads beyond Tigray

In Addis Ababa, the development has also alarmed residents who remember the aftermath of the previous war.

Abel, a 30-year-old shop owner, said the fighting had once seemed distant until explosions rang out in the capital.

"I woke up and heard that my city had been attacked," he said. "You hear about fighting in Tigray and it feels far away. But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start to wonder what will happen next."

Diplomatic sources said explosions were heard in several parts of the capital, including near Ethiopian military headquarters. Reuters also reported that a source linked to the opposition coalition claimed the group had carried out drone strikes in Addis Ababa, including against military facilities. The claim could not be independently verified.

For Abel, the economic fallout is as worrying as the fighting itself.

"If war spreads, ordinary people will be the ones to suffer," he said.

Bisrat, a university student in Addis Ababa, said overnight explosions had deepened fears that Ethiopia could be entering a far wider conflict.

"If Ethiopia descends into all-out war, ordinary people will bear the burden," he said. "I am afraid we will see another Sudan."

Sudan has been engulfed in war since April 2023, when fighting erupted between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, displacing millions and creating a major humanitarian crisis.

The current fighting also involves more parties than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is part of a broader opposition coalition that includes armed groups from several regions of the country.

Fighting has also spread to Afar, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated sharply.

Ethiopian officials accuse Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia's internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea denies the accusations.

On Thursday, Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats personae non gratae, accusing them of involvement in activities threatening Ethiopia's national security.

Eritrea subsequently announced it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.

The diplomatic rift has heightened concerns that the new fighting could take on a broader regional dimension.

Mekelle changes hands again

In Mekelle, residents are trying to work out what will happen next after the TPLF's withdrawal.

Goitom, 37, said there was a period of instability after TPLF forces left the city, with what he described as a security vacuum that allowed looting in some areas, including government offices.

"On Friday night, we heard gunfire but did not know what was happening," he said.

By Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key sites, including the airport, according to Goitom. Reuters and the AP also reported that pro-government forces entered Mekelle after the TPLF withdrew.

"It feels like we are back to square one," he said. "We have seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what comes next."

The TPLF, however, described its withdrawal as a tactical decision rather than an end to the fighting.

In a statement on Saturday, the group said it had "temporarily left Mekelle" and that the regional administration would "operate from another location." It said the decision was aimed at preventing further destruction in the city and implied that its forces would continue fighting from other positions.

For the federal government, control of Mekelle is a major step toward restoring its authority over the region.

Abraham Belay, a former president of the Tigray Interim Administration, said on Sunday that preparations were under way to form a new interim administration in Tigray, with the aim of holding regional elections within months.

"We are working to establish a new administrative structure so that the people of Tigray can govern themselves," Abraham said in an interview with Fana Broadcasting Corporate.

He said the new administrative structures would be organized from the kebele level upward, with community participation, before regional elections are held.

Conflicting accounts leave the next phase of the conflict uncertain. The federal government says it is seeking to restore its authority and install a new regional administration, while the TPLF says its forces will keep fighting from elsewhere.

Civilians fear repeat of past suffering

For those who lived through the previous war, the return of fighting has revived fears of displacement, destruction and another prolonged humanitarian crisis.

Berihu, the bajaj driver, said he had witnessed villages bombed and civilians caught up in the fighting during the previous conflict, experiences that have shaped his fears about what may come next.

"It is painful to think that civilians may once again bear the consequences," he said.

After years of displacement, loss and disruption, he said many people in Tigray simply want the fighting to stop.

"We have suffered enough," Berihu said. "We just want peace. We do not want to go through the same thing again."