Russia scales back Victory Day parade over Ukraine drone fears

May 9 is a sacred date on Russia’s calendar. It marks the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, traditionally celebrated with a grand military parade outside the Kremlin on Red Square in Moscow.

“For modern Russia, this is the main holiday of the year,” said Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the Crisis Group. “There are two main holidays in Russia: May 9 and New Year’s. If you ask Russians which is the most important, I think they’ll say May 9.”

This year, however, for the first time in nearly two decades, there will be no tanks, missiles or cadet units in the march. The decision to limit the display of military hardware stems from heightened security concerns linked to the war in Ukraine.

Staff from senior military academies will still take part in the foot procession, and the aerial show remains unchanged — an acrobatic display followed by Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets painting the sky in the three colours of the Russian flag.

In official statements, the Kremlin cites “the current operational situation” and threats from “Ukrainian terrorist activity.”

Ukrainian drones are now striking deeper into Russian territory nearly every day, targeting oil facilities and airfields. A series of recent drone attacks on the oil refinery in Tuapse, on Russia’s Black Sea coast, caused an ecological disaster and forced the evacuation of the town.

“Drones are really the primary means of striking Russian territory,” said Olha Polishchuk, director of Europe, Central Asia and Caucasus research at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). “They are relatively cheap, can be modified and can fly long distances… Both Ukraine and Russia have shifted to using drones predominantly for their strikes.”

Since 2025, she said, drone attacks “have completely overshadowed other types of attacks. Their use is generally effective; most are intercepted, but if you send enough, some will reach their targets.”

Fear of ‘political and psychological consequences’

Security and anti-drone defences have been tightened in the capital since Ukraine began sending drones there in 2023, including one that hit the Kremlin itself.

Mobile internet has been periodically shut off in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other regions in the days leading up to the event, with providers citing “security reasons.”

“Moscow has a very strong air-defence system, including short-range surface-to-air missile systems, other missile systems, small arms and electronic warfare systems,” Polishchuk explained. “It is a multi-layered system positioned both around and inside the city. In the past, authorities have turned off mobile networks in Moscow to complicate drone navigation.”

“Ukraine rarely attacks Moscow because the air defences would require a very large swarm for any attack to land, but also because there are many other strategic targets that do not carry a high risk of civilian casualties.”

Yet Victory Day ceremonies present a clear risk. Such a concentration of troops and vehicles is vulnerable not only on parade day but also before and after: the hardware has to be stored somewhere.

“Of course, they are concerned about drones flying from Ukraine, but most of those are intercepted,” Ignatov told Al Jazeera. “They are more afraid of groups using small drones smuggled into Russia to target sites inside the country, as in the [2025] Operation Web campaign… Even if one or a few small drones hit a parade, it might not cause casualties, but it would have symbolic and psychological effects. I think they worry about the political and psychological consequences of that.”

The Victory Day parade is a tradition dating back to the communist era, a time when people could see Soviet statesmen wave from the top of Lenin’s Mausoleum, and the superpower could showcase its military strength. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991, the parades were shelved for nearly two decades until President Vladimir Putin revived them in 2008.

Since the full-scale war began in 2022, the Victory Day parade has been scaled back again. Only a single Soviet T-34 tank rolled symbolically across Red Square in 2024, although other vehicles, such as armoured personnel carriers and mobile rocket launchers, were still present.

Last year’s event had a slightly more festive atmosphere. The parade featured not only modern tanks, TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrower systems and Iskander ballistic missiles, but also Russian soldiers marching alongside Chinese troops.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping watched the show seated beside Putin, one of 27 heads of state attending, including Brazil’s President Lula da Silva and Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso. Their presence seemed to signal that, despite international condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was not isolated.

‘Victory over fascist barbarism’ or ‘cynical historical distortion’

“The celebration of the Soviet and Allied victory over Hitler’s fascist coalition, Victory Day is the most sacred holiday on Russia’s political calendar,” said British historian Geoffrey Roberts.

“As always, Victory Day will be celebrated as a victory of the Soviet Union as well as Russia — the result of the common struggle of all the peoples of the multi-ethnic Soviet Union, no less than millions of Ukrainians. For the Russian government, Victory Day is a day of multi-ethnic unity. It is also a reminder of anti-fascist international solidarity — of the Soviet–Allied coalition in World War II, who together saved the world from fascist barbarism.”

The Eastern Front of World War II, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War, occupies a central place in Russian national memory. Some 27 million Soviet citizens, including Russians, died in the conflict — more than any other country — and it was Red Army soldiers who raised their flag over the Reichstag building in Berlin in 1945. Germany’s surrender was formalised on May 9.

This memory is invoked today by Putin’s government, which claims it is fighting “fascists” on the battlefield in Ukraine.

“It seems that in modern Russia, May 9 has been distorted to support aggression and militarisation,” Polishchuk said. “It is a source of great pride, supporting the view that Russia is strong, invincible and will not tolerate disrespect from anyone. The more familiar ‘never again’ refrain regarding World War II has become ‘we can do it again’ in Russia as a popular slogan on Victory Day. This belligerence becomes even more important during an ongoing war, as it supports a different reality — a world where Russia did not make a mistake by invading Ukraine and is now not failing to achieve its military goals.”

According to the open-source intelligence project Oryx, more than 14,000 Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers and other combat vehicles have been destroyed, captured, abandoned or lost since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Modern Ukraine considers Victory Day, as it is celebrated in Russia today, a cynical distortion of history and seeks to discourage foreign delegations from attending, Polishchuk added.

“Ukraine is generally more sober than Russia in sticking to militarily purposeful objectives, but this is really one of those cases where the [potential] attack seems largely symbolic,” she said. “Ukraine may decide to save resources this time and not attack Moscow — that could be a rational choice because air defences will be on high alert and security concerns may have already reduced attendance, but the Russian authorities have no choice but to try to minimise risk.”