Can a change in leadership end Israel’s international isolation?

Israeli opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have joined forces in an effort to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and lead Israel’s next government. While they have much to criticize Netanyahu for, they have hardly opposed his wars in Gaza and the rest of the region.

Those wars – particularly the one in Gaza, which has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians – have made Israel more internationally unpopular than ever. But Bennett and Lapid, both former prime ministers, appear to be betting that they can restore Israel’s global standing if they take power in the election that must be held by the end of October.

Launching his campaign in April, Bennett, a far-right politician, promised voters an “era of repair” in which “experts” who “only think about Israel’s interests” would lead the country, rather than the division and isolation brought by Netanyahu.

On the international stage, Israel finds itself more isolated than ever. A UN committee has determined that Israel has indeed committed genocide in Gaza. In Europe, countries such as Spain, Norway and Ireland have spoken out against Israel, with growing pressure within the European Union to suspend the bloc’s trade agreement with Israel. Even among the public of its staunchest ally, the US, polls consistently show both political sides increasingly angry at Israel’s multiple wars and its apparent influence on US politics. And of course, Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes.

Isolation

“Israel is becoming increasingly isolated,” Beth Oppenheim, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Al Jazeera, pointing to polls in both the US and Europe. “At the moment, Trump and Netanyahu maintain a public ‘friendship,’ although cracks have appeared over the wars in Iran and Lebanon, with the president issuing humiliating edicts to Israel on Truth Social.”

In Europe, Israel is also increasingly isolated, with only the memory of the Holocaust and transactional concerns about trade and arms deals preventing a unified response, she added.

However, on the issues of the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, as well as the occupation of Palestinians, Bennett and Lapid have little criticism – and at times even say Netanyahu hasn’t done enough. Instead of addressing the tens of thousands Israel has killed in Gaza since 2023 or the dire humanitarian conditions imposed on the survivors, last year Bennett described Hamas as a group inherently embedded in Gaza’s remaining civilian infrastructure, thereby justifying further Israeli attacks.

“Fundamentally, they’re just banking on the assumption that it’s not Israel that is hated worldwide, but Netanyahu,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, told Al Jazeera. “That’s fine, but that’s not what they will be judged on. They will be judged on policy, and so far, they are competing with each other to see who is more hawkish.”

“At no point have either of them questioned the premise of Israel’s stance on Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz or even Iran,” Pinkas said. “Have they asked if the regime is collapsing, why the people aren’t rebelling as Netanyahu claims, or put forward a new policy on Palestine? No. All they do is criticize the ceasefire.”

The only friend that matters

While European leaders criticise Israel more openly than before, the most important relationship for Israel – with US leaders – remains intact. Bennett and Lapid would prioritise maintaining that relationship. “Bennett will want to bring Trump to his side,” pollster Mitchell Barak told Al Jazeera.

“Europe and many Western countries will do what they do,” he said of the Israeli public’s indifference to European outrage. “But Israel’s security and its relationship with the US will have the greatest impact on the public. Right now, Netanyahu has that, but we know Trump can be unpredictable, and if Netanyahu appears weak, Trump hates losers.”

How deep Israel’s isolation in Europe can go is also an open question, analysts say. Western governments have long benefited from intelligence gathered by Israel, as well as trade with the country, particularly in high-tech and spyware. A change at the top, Oppenheim suggested, may be enough to signal a return to the international fold.

“While Western publics are increasingly hostile to Israel, most governments still hope they don’t have to act. A more palatable new government would give leaders an opportunity to reset relations with Israel,” Oppenheim said.

“But a new Israeli government won’t change the underlying trajectory. They could pursue a more pragmatic policy toward the Palestinian Authority, clamp down on settler terrorism, and also be in a better position to make diplomatic concessions,” she said. “However, there is near-consensus across all Jewish Israeli parties on rejecting a Palestinian state while pursuing a more aggressive security doctrine. Netanyahu’s main rival, Naftali Bennett, is an ideological right-winger, while Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid and others – centrists in the Israeli sense – compete with each other through hawkish rhetoric.”

European countries thus face a test. They could view the removal of Netanyahu as an opportunity to ease pressure on Israel, largely a political necessity driven by public disgust at Israel’s actions. Or they could signal that Israel must change its ways, not necessarily its leader – essentially telling Israel that the shift in support for Israel will be long-lasting.

“A more polite Israeli leadership that says the right things may be exactly the ticket to allow Western governments to reset relations,” Oppenheim said. “But if the government’s policies don’t change, Israel will not be able to avoid a reckoning with the West in the long run.”