The UN weather agency has warned that a record-hot year is almost certain to occur in the next five years. In a report released on 30 May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is an 86% probability that one of the years between now and 2030 will surpass 2024 – already the hottest year in history – to set a new record.
The WMO also said there is a 75% chance that the average temperature in the 2026–2030 period will be 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times. This is the threshold that scientists warn could lead to more extreme weather events, including intense heatwaves and severe storms.
The goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C was agreed by nearly 200 countries in the Paris Agreement, which took effect in November 2016. However, scientists and environmentalists have long warned that this target is becoming increasingly difficult to meet. It should be noted that the target is measured over a 20-year cycle, so a single year exceeding the threshold does not mean the long-term goal is unattainable.
The report also forecasts that temperatures in the Arctic – the second coldest region on Earth – will be 2.8°C higher than the 1991–2020 average over the next five winters. If this prediction holds, the region is warming more than 3.5 times faster than the global average.
Professor Michael Jacobs, an expert in political economy at the University of Sheffield, told Al Jazeera that countries must do much more to meet the Paris Agreement targets. “This report reminds us of what too many politicians are urging us to forget: climate change is happening, it's getting worse, and the only way to slow it is to switch as quickly as possible to renewable energy and electrification,” he said.
On rainfall, the report forecasts an increase in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia over the next five years, while the Amazon region – often called the Earth’s lungs – is expected to become drier.
The warning comes as Western Europe is experiencing a heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 35°C in parts of the United Kingdom on Tuesday, breaking the country’s May temperature record for the second consecutive day. Such temperatures are considered high even at the height of the British summer, let alone during spring.
On 29 May, the UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, said the extreme temperatures in Europe were a devastating reminder of the dangers posed by the climate crisis. “Science has clearly shown that human-induced climate change is making these heatwaves more frequent and intense. Protecting human life, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the other rising costs of climate change is a core task for every nation, and it starts with kicking our fossil fuel addiction much faster,” Stiell stressed.
