The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has released an analysis showing the US-Iran conflict is pushing millions of people into the risk of starvation. According to a report released on June 1, the impact of the conflict on oil prices is having "far-reaching consequences" for global food security.
Estimates from March predicted that 45 million people would fall into severe food insecurity if oil prices remained at $100 per barrel through the end of June. The WFP confirmed that this scenario is beginning to unfold, even though the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global food price index has only risen modestly.
"Sharp food price increases have already occurred in vulnerable countries," the WFP stressed. "The crisis is generating clear spillover effects, particularly through shocks to fuel prices, food prices, incomes, and trade disruptions. When interacting with existing vulnerabilities, these quickly translate into direct impacts on food security and livelihoods."
The war erupted on February 28, shaking oil markets as the Strait of Hormuz was almost continuously closed, preventing oil tankers from completing their journeys. Indirect US-Iran talks have yet to produce a clear end to the conflict.
Households in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka are bearing the brunt of rising fuel costs, soaring food prices, falling incomes, and disrupted trade. In Somalia, 6.5 million people (about one-third of the population) are expected to face severe hunger in 2026, with an additional 2.5 million unable to afford a basic food basket. In Afghanistan, 17.4 million people are affected, with 2.3 million at risk of food insecurity, adding to the 13.8 million already struggling before the war. Sri Lanka is expected to see an additional 1.3 million people unable to meet basic food needs.
The WFP said the global humanitarian system is also under "dual pressure" from rising transport costs, leading to aid gaps. If the conflict lasts six months, more than 9 million people could lose support due to increased operational costs and local food prices. Under initial plans, the WFP would serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 than expected.
