Libya: 15 Years After Gaddafi's Fall, Rival Factions Test the Path to Cooperation

Libya's two rival legislative bodies reached a historic agreement in April on a budget of 190 billion dinars (nearly $30 billion), split between both sides. The U.S.-backed deal is seen as a sign that the void left after Muammar Gaddafi's overthrow 15 years ago is being filled by unprecedented cooperative efforts.

Since the 2011 uprising, Libya has been in near-constant conflict, with opposing institutions, recurring violence, and repeatedly delayed elections. The 2012 general election, with about 1.76 million voters casting ballots, was the first and only time Libya saw a peaceful transfer of power. Two years later, General Khalifa Haftar launched an anti-terror campaign, attacking the parliament in Tripoli, forcing lawmakers to relocate to the east.

A 2015 U.N.-brokered peace deal maintained both parliaments, but conflict persisted, culminating in the 2019 assault on Tripoli. A ceasefire was established in 2020. In 2021, the U.N. appointed Abdul Hamid Dbeibah as prime minister of the Government of National Unity (GNU), on condition that elections be held that December. The vote was canceled at the last minute, Dbeibah refused to step down, and the eastern parliament has backed an rival administration since 2022.

Although all parties express support for elections, disagreements remain over candidate eligibility, voting procedures, and the powers of a new government. U.S. mediation efforts under President Donald Trump also hit a dead end.

A bright spot is that the frontline between the two sides has been largely static, and internal violence shows signs of increasing. Last April, soldiers from the east and west jointly participated in a U.S.-led exercise in Sirte, near the ceasefire line. The event was hosted by Haftar's son Saddam, with participation from Tripoli's deputy defense minister. However, assassinations targeting security officials on both sides continue, indicating risks of instability.

Economically, blockades of oil ports and fields—a frequently used economic weapon—have decreased markedly. The Central Bank of Libya once calculated losses of over $160 billion from three years of oil infrastructure blockades. In 2020, Haftar's blockade caused nearly $10 billion in damage. For the first time, a private company exported Libyan crude oil through an Abu Dhabi agreement between rival officials, but the deal was later terminated amid questions over ownership and revenue flows.

Libya holds Africa's largest oil reserves but barely refines any; its largest refinery has been idle since 2013. The country exports crude at international prices, imports refined fuels, and subsidizes retail prices, fueling smuggling. Widespread power outages this year disrupted water, banking, and telecommunications, while the dinar has depreciated severely from 1.3 dinars/USD in 2011 to over 9 dinars on the black market.

Institutions built for the transition have been turned into tools of rival states. Libyans, after three wars, do not want a fourth. Rival leaders have learned to negotiate without a political solution, but the biggest question remains whether this economic bargaining can extend to power-sharing.