Lebanon 26 Years After Israel’s Withdrawal: Everything and Nothing Has Changed
Rami G Khouri
Lebanon, 26 years after Israel’s withdrawal from the south, remains trapped in the same cycle of conflict. A local war has become a regional one, drawing in Iran and the US, with the Palestinian cause still at the core. Hezbollah has rebuilt itself stronger, even as Lebanon’s state and economy crumble under Israeli strikes and political paralysis.
Twenty-six years ago, Israel was forced to end its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon. Today, Lebanon and Israel remain locked into the policies that drove them into the current war — a conflict that not only enmeshes Iran and the United States but also threatens the global economy.
The Palestine question remains the central tremor rocking the region. That is why Israel began attacking pro-Palestinian forces in Lebanon as early as the 1970s, before Hezbollah was founded. Iran’s backing of Hezbollah after 1982 turned Lebanon into the main front between Iran and Israel; now, with the US fighting alongside Israel, that front has become a regional war.
Since 2000, much has changed in Lebanon. Missile technology, drones and advanced radar have reshaped the balance of power, particularly Iran’s and Hezbollah’s growing ability to evade US-Israeli air defenses. Lebanon’s economy has collapsed, and its people have been repeatedly forced from their homes. Israel has devastated southern towns and villages, applying the urban-eradication doctrine it used on Dahiyeh in Beirut in 2006 and later on Gaza. Hezbollah has taken heavy blows but re-emerged leaner and more flexible, once again blocking Israel’s attempts to subdue Lebanon or impose a permanent security zone.
The regional picture has also shifted. Syria’s role as a bridge between Hezbollah and Iran has crumbled. Iran has been hurt by US-Israeli strikes, but Tehran appears determined to include Lebanon in any regional deal that ends the war. The US openly sides with Israel, pressuring President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to “disarm” Hezbollah. Major powers — China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Russia — are pushing in different ways for an end to the war and a restoration of Lebanese sovereignty.
Amid the political storm, many conditions from the pre-2000 era persist. The population remains divided over Hezbollah’s armed role as the only effective resistance force against Israel. The Lebanese government is politically and militarily impotent — short of funds, lacking internal consensus, and sometimes bowing to Israeli-US pressure. Washington also ties reconstruction aid to Beirut’s compliance with US-Israeli terms, turns a blind eye to Israeli ceasefire violations, officially backs Israel’s right to strike any target it deems a threat, while denying Lebanon the same right.
The government is also under pressure from a destitute population furious at Israel’s unrelenting attacks. In 2026 alone, Israel killed more than 3,000 people, forcibly displaced 1.2 million and devastated dozens of villages. The government justifies its talks with Israel as an effort to use US pressure to halt the strikes and re-establish sovereign control over the entire territory.
Above old and new dynamics stands a historical reality: Iran and Hezbollah, backed by allies, have absorbed devastating US-Israeli blows and twice forced far stronger nuclear-armed adversaries to accept ceasefires and renegotiate — first over Iran in early April, then over Lebanon days later. The Lebanon ceasefire is expected to merge with a broader Iran-US deal. Both truces appear to signal declining US-Israeli regional sway, delivering a deep political blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while granting fresh diplomatic leverage to Iran, Hezbollah and their allies.
The lesson may be that military might, however brutal, cannot permanently impose reality in the Middle East. Buffer zones, “security zones,” Israeli settlements, pro-Israel allies, military outposts and relentless airstrikes — the entire US-Israeli playbook — may be consigned to the past if current trends hold.
What the new diplomatic balance in Lebanon will look like remains to be seen. But the survival of Iran and Hezbollah through “existential” battles and their push for a permanent ceasefire could weaken Israel’s posture and help reshape Lebanon’s internal dynamics. Ideally, this could push Hezbollah, the Beirut government and all Lebanese toward a long-term, serious approach for mutually beneficial relations with an Israel that fully respects Lebanese sovereignty.
If that happens, it will force all sides to fairly address the central issue that has been ignored for 78 years and that fans the eternal flames of war: the rights of the Palestinian people. Only mature, resolute diplomacy and legitimate defensive strategies will determine whether the current trend leads to that outcome.
