Record heatwave engulfs South Asia, affecting hundreds of millions

A record-breaking and deadly heatwave is sweeping across South Asia, pushing temperatures to dangerous levels and disrupting the lives of hundreds of millions. Countries including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have reported temperatures far above seasonal averages, with some areas reaching 45-50 degrees Celsius.

In Pakistan, at least 10 people were reported dead from heat-related complications on Tuesday (May 5). Several other deaths have also been recorded in neighboring India.

Scientists and meteorological agencies say the intensity, duration, and geographic extent of the recent heatwaves are unprecedented. A growing number of experts link these extreme events to human-induced climate change.

What is causing the early-season heat?

Anjal Prakash, Research Director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy (India), explained: “Dominant high-pressure systems trap hot air near the surface like a dome, preventing it from rising and cooling.” He added that weak pre-monsoon rains and prolonged El Niño-like weather patterns have further reduced cooling capacity.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions could form as early as May to July, and while there is no evidence climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño, it could worsen its impacts.

Countries hit hardest

India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-average temperatures across most of the country, particularly in western regions and along the coast. The number of heatwave days along the eastern coast and in the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra could increase by 4-5 days in May. In some areas of northwest and central India, temperatures have already exceeded 46°C. On April 24, more than 90 of the world’s hottest cities were recorded in India.

In the last week of April, two teachers died from heat stroke, and four others were reported dead from heat-related causes in West Bengal.

Pakistan

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts continued heat across central and upper Sindh province. In Karachi, the country’s most populous city, temperatures reached 44°C on Monday (May 4), the highest since 2018. Cities like Jacobabad and Sukkur are expected to hit 46°C by the weekend.

Bangladesh

Dhaka, along with Faridpur, Rajshahi, and Pabna districts, was hardest hit in mid-to-late April, with temperatures ranging from 37-38°C. In 2024, Bangladesh recorded 24 heatwave days in April, the highest in 75 years.

Impact on people in the region

Kartikeya Bhatotia, a researcher at the Mittal Institute for South Asia at Harvard University, said extreme heat affects people through multiple pathways, but the impact is highly unequal. “The elderly, pregnant women, young children, and those with pre-existing conditions face the greatest risk. Low-income workers are also more exposed because they must work outdoors.”

He estimates about 380 million Indians, or three-quarters of the workforce, work in heat-exposed jobs. Lost working hours erode incomes, causing cascading effects on nutrition and access to medicine.

Government response

Bhatotia noted that India’s “heat action plan” model is proving insufficient to protect the most vulnerable populations. Heat action plans often reach only those within formal systems, while “informal workers and daily wage laborers—who are the most exposed—are largely outside these protections.”

He called for a broader “structural response” encompassing housing, urban planning, health systems, labor protections, and disaster management. “Building codes need to mandate passive design standards before construction, and labor protections must be enforceable for informal workers.”

In Pakistan, climate expert Fahad Saeed expressed concern about the country’s preparedness and transparency. He pointed to discrepancies between official data and reality, stressing: “The government must first provide accurate numbers, collect real data, and let the world know this is a disaster.” Saeed warned that concealing the scale of damage would make developing countermeasures extremely difficult.

The future of heatwaves

Bhatotia said climate models predict that the frequency and intensity of extreme heatwaves will increase across South Asia in the coming decades. Although India has warmed more slowly than the global average in recent decades—partly due to the temporary cooling effect of aerosol pollution and irrigation—both factors are expected to weaken in coming years, potentially accelerating warming.

However, he emphasized that rising temperatures do not necessarily mean increased damage if the right measures are taken. “Good adaptation planning, anticipatory action, and early warning systems can significantly reduce harm even as temperatures rise. The goal is to decouple the temperature trend from the suffering trend.”